Microvascular disease burden and macrovascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes: Risk calculator in Taiwan.

Abstract

The growing prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) poses a significant challenge to healthcare systems globally. Microvascular diseases, including diabetic kidney disease, retinopathy, and neuropathy, are frequent complications of T2DM and may signal an increased risk of macrovascular diseases, such as stroke and myocardial infarction. This study, based on prior findings from a nationwide cohort in Taiwan demonstrated that individuals with two or more macrovascular complications had elevated risks of cardiovascular events and mortality over a median follow-up of 3.3 years. Building on this, the current study develops a practical risk calculator for predicting 3-year cardiovascular risk. Shared pathogenic mechanisms, such as vascular injury, endothelial dysfunction, and autonomic neuropathy, may suggest these associations. In response, we developed a Risk Engine Calculator that incorporates the number of microvascular diseases, elevated HbA1c, systolic blood pressure, LDL cholesterol, and insulin use to estimate 3-year cardiovascular risk in patients with T2DM without established macrovascular complications. Patients are stratified into low, moderate, or high risk categories to guide clinical decision-making. While the calculator is practical and evidence-based, limitations include its additive design, potential simplification of risk relationships, and relatively short follow-up period. Overall, this study underscores the importance of integrating microvascular diseases burden into cardiovascular risk assessment and provides a user-friendly tool to support precision medicine in diabetes management.