What Made the COVID-19 Pandemic Experience Worse in Communities in Northern Nigeria: Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping of Community Perceptions.

Abstract

AimsCollate local perceptions of factors influencing experience of the COVID-19 pandemic in communities in Bauchi State, Northern Nigeria.ResultsFuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) collated participant views of what made their experience worse during the COVID-19 pandemic. FCM uses concepts linked by weighted arrows to indicate perceived causal relationships. Higher weights indicate stronger influences; positive and negative signs indicate direct and inverse causal relationships, respectively. In late 2023, local facilitators collected 81 maps in urban, rural and remote communities, 11 with administrative officials, and four with vulnerable groups (388 participants in total). We created average maps for each stakeholder group. Facilitators inductively grouped factors into categories. We calculated the cumulative net influence (CNI) (range -1 to +1) of categories and identified important causes and outcomes within the network. The maps included 152 factors in 25 categories. Hunger and lack of food (CNI = 0.63) worsened pandemic experience the most, followed by reduced businesses and jobs (CNI = 0.40), causing economic disruption and threatening livelihoods. Increased household conflicts (CNI = 0.35) and stress and mental health problems (CNI = 0.30) were also prominent negative influences and intermediate outcomes in the network. Lockdown (CNI = 0.34) was the most important underlying cause of other causal categories.ConclusionsThe maps depicted the interconnected impacts of the pandemic on community members. Participants confirmed the worst impacts were related to control measures exacerbating pre-existing economic challenges. These FCM findings will form part of the evidence shared with communities and policy makers to support co-design of strategies for pandemic recovery aligned with community needs and strengths.