Staying polio free: A capture-recapture analysis of acute flaccid paralysis surveillance in the Australian Capital Territory

IF 2.4 3区医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI:10.1016/j.anzjph.2025.100281

Sarah E. Alland , Philip N. Britton , Bruce Thorley , Linda Hobday , Matthew Kelly , Ololade Fasugba , Margaret Wilson , Anne Morris , David N. Durrheim

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objective

Detections of acute flaccid paralysis in the Australian Capital Territory in the last decade have been lower than the target rate for polio surveillance. The aim of this study was to evaluate the case ascertainment of acute flaccid paralysis surveillance in the Australian Capital Territory to determine if cases have been under-reported.

Methods

A two-source capture-recapture analysis was designed to estimate the number of acute flaccid paralysis cases in the Australian Capital Territory population aged under 15 years from 2000 to 2021 using 1) the National Acute Flaccid Paralysis Surveillance Database (the database) and 2) Canberra Hospital inpatient records.

Results

The capture-recapture analysis estimated there were 26 acute flaccid paralysis cases in the Australian Capital Territory during this period (95% confidence interval: 8–43), with estimated 27% case ascertainment by the database.

Conclusions

Under-reporting of non-polio acute flaccid paralysis in the Australian Capital Territory was identified. Lack of awareness of acute flaccid paralysis surveillance requirements among clinicians and a lack of dedicated surveillance resources may have contributed to under-reporting. Acute flaccid paralysis reporting mechanisms should be reviewed in partnership with local clinicians to ensure that all acute flaccid paralysis cases are detected and investigated for possible poliovirus infection.

Implications for Public Health

Acute flaccid paralysis surveillance needs to be homogenously robust so that public health response can be rapidly initiated if polio is reintroduced in Australia.

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保持无脊髓灰质炎：澳大利亚首都地区急性弛缓性麻痹监测的捕获-再捕获分析。

目的：在过去十年中，澳大利亚首都地区急性弛缓性麻痹的检出率低于脊髓灰质炎监测的目标率。本研究的目的是评估澳大利亚首都地区急性弛缓性麻痹监测的病例确定情况，以确定病例是否有漏报。方法：采用双源捕获-再捕获分析，利用1)国家急性弛缓性麻痹监测数据库（数据库）和2)堪培拉医院住院记录，估计2000年至2021年澳大利亚首都地区15岁以下人口中急性弛缓性麻痹病例的数量。结果：捕获-再捕获分析估计，在此期间澳大利亚首都地区有26例急性弛缓性麻痹病例（95%置信区间：8-43），数据库估计确定了27%的病例。结论：确定了澳大利亚首都地区非脊髓灰质炎急性弛缓性麻痹的漏报。临床医生缺乏对急性弛缓性麻痹监测要求的认识和缺乏专门的监测资源可能导致报告不足。应与当地临床医生合作审查急性弛缓性麻痹的报告机制，以确保发现所有急性弛缓性麻痹病例并调查可能的脊髓灰质炎病毒感染。对公共卫生的影响：急性弛缓性麻痹的监测需要同样强有力，以便在澳大利亚再次出现脊髓灰质炎时能够迅速启动公共卫生反应。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生

CiteScore

4.20

自引率

5.70%

发文量

121

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： The Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health (ANZJPH) is concerned with public health issues. The research reported includes formal epidemiological inquiries into the correlates and causes of diseases and health-related behaviour, analyses of public policy affecting health and disease, and detailed studies of the cultures and social structures within which health and illness exist. The Journal is multidisciplinary and aims to publish methodologically sound research from any of the academic disciplines that constitute public health.