IWSL Model: A Novel Credit Scoring Model With Interpretable Features for Consumer Credit Scenarios

IF 2.7 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Runchi Zhang, Iris Li, Zhiyuan Ding, Tianhao Zhu
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Abstract

Current studies have designed many credit scoring models with high performance, but they are often weak in interpretability with obvious “black box” features. This makes them difficult to meet the requirements of the regulators about the model's interpretability. This paper presents a novel credit scoring model as the IWSL model, which is data feature driven with interpretable features. The IWSL model first calculates the representative eigenvectors of default and nondefault samples according to their spatial distribution characteristics, as well as the eigenvector located in the middle of these two types of eigenvectors in the sample space. It then calculates the weighted distance between each sample and each eigenvector to divide the training dataset into three subsets and constructs sublogistic models separately. In the absence of prior information about the optimal weight setting of each attribute, the swarm intelligence algorithm is applied to back-optimize the weights according to the model's generalization ability in the validation stage. The empirical results show that the IWSL model outperforms 12 leading credit scoring models on three public consumer credit scoring datasets with statistical significance. Model component validity testing confirms the effectiveness of the IWSL model's core settings, while sensitivity analysis validates its ability to maintain robust results.

Abstract Image

IWSL模型:一种具有可解释特征的新型消费者信用评分模型
目前的研究已经设计出了许多高性能的信用评分模型,但这些模型的可解释性往往较弱,存在明显的“黑箱”特征。这使得它们难以满足监管机构对模型可解释性的要求。本文提出了一种新的信用评分模型,即具有可解释特征的数据特征驱动的IWSL模型。IWSL模型首先根据默认样本和非默认样本的空间分布特征计算其代表性特征向量,以及在样本空间中位于这两类特征向量中间的特征向量。然后计算每个样本与每个特征向量之间的加权距离,将训练数据集划分为三个子集,分别构建sublogistic模型。在缺乏各属性最优权值设置先验信息的情况下,根据模型在验证阶段的泛化能力,利用群智能算法对权值进行反向优化。实证结果表明,IWSL模型在三个公共消费者信用评分数据集上优于12个领先的信用评分模型,且具有统计学意义。模型组件有效性测试确认了IWSL模型核心设置的有效性,而敏感性分析验证了其保持稳健结果的能力。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.40
自引率
5.90%
发文量
91
期刊介绍: The Journal of Forecasting is an international journal that publishes refereed papers on forecasting. It is multidisciplinary, welcoming papers dealing with any aspect of forecasting: theoretical, practical, computational and methodological. A broad interpretation of the topic is taken with approaches from various subject areas, such as statistics, economics, psychology, systems engineering and social sciences, all encouraged. Furthermore, the Journal welcomes a wide diversity of applications in such fields as business, government, technology and the environment. Of particular interest are papers dealing with modelling issues and the relationship of forecasting systems to decision-making processes.
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