Dengue dynamics: A holistic predictive model considering epidemic, vaccination, and environmental factors.

Abstract

This research applied a predictive model to analyse the role that vaccination and community factors play in controlling the dengue virus. The study considers epidemiological and environmental data from the city of São Paulo (Brazil) after the start of the TAK-003 vaccination protocol in children aged 10-14 in 2024. The simulation of this study showed that the vaccination policy in São Paulo reduced reported and unreported cases, in addition to reducing the number of deaths. However, only 30% of the target group was covered by current vaccination distributions, indicating the need to expand vaccination coverage for more effective epidemic control. The results also indicate that the TAK-003 vaccine can be effective in long-term strategies. The proposed system dynamics model was used to simulate the different outcomes of the dengue epidemic in two scenarios. The first scenario simulated the development of dengue without vaccination, while the second simulated the results with the current vaccination strategy.