Noninvasive prediction of high-risk esophageal varices by spleen and liver stiffness measurements using sound touch elastography

Abstract

Background and aims

Noninvasive assessments play a crucial role in ruling out high-risk esophageal varices (HREV) in cirrhotic patients. However, the value of sound touch elastography (STE) in predicting HREV has not been comprehensively investigated. Therefore, this study aimed to establish prediction models based on liver and spleen stiffness measurements obtained by STE and provide assessment strategies and cutoff values tailored for different clinical situations.

Methods

This prospective study included cirrhotic patients who underwent esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD). Liver and spleen stiffness measurements by STE were performed within six months of EGD examination. Various prediction models and their corresponding cutoff values were established for different clinical situations, incorporating spleen diameter and laboratory parameters.

Results

A total of 154 cirrhotic patients were included in the study and stratified into training (n = 119) and validation (n = 35) sets. Multivariable analysis revealed platelet, spleen diameter and spleen stiffness measurement as independent predictors of HREV. The model incorporating spleen stiffness measurement, platelet, and spleen diameter demonstrated superior performance in predicting HREV, yielding an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.878 and 0.853 in the training set and validation set, respectively. Application of this model for screening cirrhotic patients could avoid EGDs in 39.7% (27/68) and 35.3% (6/17) of patients in the training and validation sets, respectively.

Conclusions

Liver and spleen stiffness measurements obtained through STE are valuable for predicting HREV in cirrhotic patients. The developed prediction models and their corresponding cutoff values provide tailored solutions for various clinical situations, thereby effectively reducing the need for unnecessary endoscopies.