The Arab world at a crossroads: assessing future risks under changing climate

Abstract

The Arab world is experiencing temperature increases at nearly twice the global average, presenting significant challenges to human livability, water availability, and food security. Concurrently, high inflation rates, increasing population density (PD), and political instability exert pressure on achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs) in the region. This study examines the effects of temperature and precipitation changes across the Arab world under 1.5 °C (2021–2040), 2.0 °C (2041–2060), and 3.0 °C (2061–2080) warming scenarios relative to the baseline period 1995–2014 using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen’s slope estimator were applied to evaluate the statistical significance and magnitude of temperature and precipitation trends across the Arab world. It also explores projected shifts in aridity and risk levels impacting land use/land cover (LULC), PD, water scarcity, and food insecurity. The aridity index (AI) is calculated using precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data sets. A risk classification framework assesses climate change impacts based on temperature and precipitation variations. The water stress index (WSI) and food insecurity index (FISI) predict climate change impacts under different risk levels on water scarcity and food security. A pairwise comparison matrix (PCM) determines the weight criteria for water stress, food insecurity, risk levels, and PD changes. The projected water stress and food insecurity levels across the Arab countries are estimated using a weighted sum (WS) model. Findings indicate a projected increase in temperature, with significant variations across Arab countries and seasons. Precipitation trends are complex, with increases in some regions and decreases in others. For example, winter precipitation is expected to decline in North African countries such as Algeria, Tunisia, and Egypt by 5.80–28.61% under 1.5 and 3.0 °C scenarios, while summer precipitation may increase in the Arabian Peninsula by 21.14–133.34%. Hyperarid and arid regions are likely to expand, while semiarid and dry sub-humid areas diminish. Closed forests and croplands, particularly in Sudan, Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, are expected to be most impacted, underscoring the need for adaptive conservation strategies. The WSI indicates that regions such as Iraq, Morocco, Palestine, and Lebanon may transition from high to extremely high water stress under extreme climate conditions. Djibouti, Sudan, Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Somalia, Libya, and Palestine face very high food insecurity risks, emphasizing persistent vulnerabilities. These findings underscore the urgent need for promoting national planning with comprehensive adaptive climatic strategies across the Arab world.