Analytical simulation of sustainable development scenarios for global two-component nuclear power industry. Part 1. Thermal reactor scenarios

IF 0.3 4区工程技术 Q4 NUCLEAR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Atomic Energy Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI:10.1007/s10512-025-01187-y

A. V. Abramova, V. V. Kharitonov

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

The share of nuclear power in global electricity production has fallen from 17 to 9% since 2000. Moreover, the issue of limited natural uranium resources and their availability for the industry becomes acute.

Aim

To analytically determine the possibilities of accelerated and sustainable development of global nuclear power industry (NPI) based on thermal nuclear reactors.

Materials and methods

Scenarios for the accelerated development of global NPI based on thermal reactors were calculated using analytical methods developed by the authors for predicting the dynamics of natural uranium resource depletion.

Results and discussion

The paper provides the development dynamics of NPI with only thermal reactors of a VVER type and its share in the global electricity production. Given the uranium reserves for currently operating reactors, 7.9 MtU of existing natural uranium resources appear sufficient to build only 490 (290) reactors with an operating period of 60 (80) years. Doubling natural uranium resources to 16 MtU and increasing the annual rate of thermal reactor construction to 4% could increase the contribution of nuclear power plants to the global electricity generation from 9 to 11–12% by 2035, yet followed with a rapid decline as uranium is depleted.

Conclusion

The performed analysis demonstrates inadequacy of a long-term and sustainable development for global NPI based only on thermal nuclear reactors. An analysis of development scenarios based on fast reactors will be presented in Part 2.

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全球双组份核电工业可持续发展情景分析模拟。第1部分。热反应堆方案

自2000年以来，核电在全球电力生产中的份额已经从17%下降到9%。此外，有限的天然铀资源及其可供工业使用的问题变得十分严重。目的分析确定基于热核反应堆的全球核电工业加速和可持续发展的可能性。材料和方法采用作者开发的预测天然铀资源枯竭动态的分析方法，计算了基于热堆的全球NPI加速发展的情景。结果与讨论本文提供了仅使用VVER型热堆的NPI的发展动态及其在全球电力生产中的份额。考虑到目前运行的反应堆的铀储量，7.9 MtU的现有天然铀资源似乎只足够建造490（290）个运行周期为60（80）年的反应堆。将天然铀资源翻一番，达到16 MtU，并将热堆的年建设速度提高到4%，到2035年，核电站对全球发电量的贡献将从9%提高到11% - 12%，但随着铀的枯竭，随后将迅速下降。结论所进行的分析表明，仅基于热核反应堆的全球NPI的长期可持续发展是不足的。第2部分将介绍基于快堆的开发方案分析。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Atomic Energy 工程技术-核科学技术

CiteScore

1.00

自引率

20.00%

发文量

100

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Atomic Energy publishes papers and review articles dealing with the latest developments in the peaceful uses of atomic energy. Topics include nuclear chemistry and physics, plasma physics, accelerator characteristics, reactor economics and engineering, applications of isotopes, and radiation monitoring and safety.