Analysis of Geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejections in the Flux of the Solar Wind and Cosmic Rays at Ground Level on May 10–12, 2024

IF 0.48 Q4 Physics and Astronomy

Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics Pub Date : 2025-07-15 DOI:10.1134/S1062873825711225

V. V. Borog, I. I. Astapov, N. S. Barbashina, Yu. N. Mishutina, V. V. Shutenko

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We propose a complex operational predictor of space weather disturbances. The analysis is based on the data of time series of different types—solar activity in the radio and gamma ranges, the solar wind energy, and variations in the flux of cosmic rays according to the data of the world network of neutron monitors and the muon hodoscope—examined with the method of flicker-noise spectroscopy. This approach was tested in the analysis of a powerful geomagnetic disturbance (Dst = –412 nT). The sequence of predictors has been obtained in real time within a range from 2–3 days to several hours.

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2024年5月10-12日太阳风和宇宙射线地面通量对地球有效日冕物质抛射的分析

我们提出了一个复杂的操作预测空间天气干扰。根据世界中子监测网和μ子望远镜的数据，用闪烁噪声光谱法对不同类型的时间序列——太阳活动的射电和伽马范围、太阳风能量和宇宙射线通量的变化进行了分析。这种方法在一个强大的地磁扰动（Dst = - 412nt）的分析中得到了验证。预测因子序列已在2-3天至数小时的范围内实时获得。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics Physics and Astronomy-Physics and Astronomy (all)

CiteScore

0.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

251

期刊介绍： Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics is an international peer reviewed journal published with the participation of the Russian Academy of Sciences. It presents full-text articles (regular, letters to the editor, reviews) with the most recent results in miscellaneous fields of physics and astronomy: nuclear physics, cosmic rays, condensed matter physics, plasma physics, optics and photonics, nanotechnologies, solar and astrophysics, physical applications in material sciences, life sciences, etc. Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics focuses on the most relevant multidisciplinary topics in natural sciences, both fundamental and applied. Manuscripts can be submitted in Russian and English languages and are subject to peer review. Accepted articles are usually combined in thematic issues on certain topics according to the journal editorial policy. Authors featured in the journal represent renowned scientific laboratories and institutes from different countries, including large international collaborations. There are globally recognized researchers among the authors: Nobel laureates and recipients of other awards, and members of national academies of sciences and international scientific societies.