Stochastic artificial intelligence models for water resources management: innovative riverflow estimation amidst uncertainty

Abstract

Rivers provide irreplaceable resources for human life, and the problem of water scarcity has attracted serious attention worldwide. In this study, Kashkan River located in Loristan Province of Iran was studied using data obtained from the database of Iran Water Resources Company (IWRC). Three distinct machine learning (ML) models – Regression Tree (RT), Random Search Regression Tree (RSRT), and Bayesian Optimization Regression Tree (BORT) – were utilized to enhance water resource management practices. The primary model used was RT, a method that uses Bayesian optimization and stochastic search algorithms to provide an accurate estimate of the maximum flow within a river. The two hybrid models, RSRT and BORT, were introduced to improve the model performance. Through a comprehensive comparison and analysis of the results generated by these models, valuable insights were gained. Among the three models, the RSRT model demonstrated superior performance and accuracy metrics in streamflow (SF) modeling, closely aligning its results with a DR line of 1, indicating an optimal fit. The BORT and RT models also achieved excellent results, with their performance being on par with that of the top-performing RSRT model.