The sustainable energy development dilemma in European countries: a time-series cluster analysis

IF 5.1 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS
Víctor Dugo, David Gálvez-Ruiz, Pilar Díaz-Cuevas
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Measuring the evolution of countries in various related dimensions is essential for the evaluation of progress and compliance with the set of sustainable development goals. However, the main dilemma lies in how to achieve rapid progress towards sustainability without compromising national and regional stability, equity, or economic viability. The main objective of this paper is to propose a new country classification guide to assess whether the framework can also be used by authorities worldwide to provide a more detailed perspective of the current situation, thereby enabling the detection of problems, the setting of objectives, a better understanding of the results, and the identification of optimal policy actions.

Results

The data analysed are from the period 2004–2018 for 30 European countries, and 13 used variables are grouped into three dimensions: economic structure, energy supply policy, and energy consumption. Cluster analysis is carried out in two steps. In the first step, a time-series cluster analysis is performed for each of the three typologies of variables using Dynamic Time Warping and Complete Linkage algorithm. Each country is subsequently assigned a qualitative three-dimensional vector that indicates cluster membership for each typology. This vector is used as input, and the Lin distance and Ward algorithm are applied to group the countries in the final step. Nine final clusters are obtained. Despite the difference in the number of clusters at each dimension, certain geographical and cultural homogeneity can be found.

Conclusions

The diversity of energy and environmental performance among European countries underlines the need for concrete policies that integrate the specific socioeconomic, energy and environmental contexts of each country. Strategies implemented so far have proven insufficient to address disparities in economic development, energy dependence and renewable energy uptake, and tailored approaches are essential. These insights provide policy makers with a sound basis for designing informed strategies that balance progress towards sustainability. The implementation of adapted policies can accelerate the energy transition, optimise resources and strengthen lagging regions, fostering a more cohesive and uniform European energy strategy. Future research could apply this methodology to other regions or thematic areas, extending variables and territories to generate global rankings and further explore sustainability challenges.

欧洲国家可持续能源发展困境:时间序列聚类分析
背景衡量各国在各个相关方面的演变对于评估进展情况和对一套可持续发展目标的遵守情况至关重要。然而,主要的难题在于如何在不损害国家和地区稳定、公平或经济可行性的情况下实现可持续发展的快速进展。本文的主要目的是提出一个新的国家分类指南,以评估该框架是否也可以被世界各地的当局使用,以提供对当前形势的更详细的看法,从而能够发现问题,设定目标,更好地了解结果,并确定最佳政策行动。结果分析的数据来自2004-2018年30个欧洲国家,13个使用的变量分为三个维度:经济结构、能源供应政策和能源消耗。聚类分析分两步进行。在第一步中,使用动态时间翘曲和完全链接算法对三种类型的变量中的每一种进行时间序列聚类分析。随后,每个国家被分配一个定性的三维向量,表示每种类型的集群成员。该向量作为输入,最后一步使用Lin距离和Ward算法对国家进行分组。最终得到9个簇。尽管在每个维度上集群的数量不同,但可以发现一定的地理和文化同质性。欧洲国家能源和环境表现的多样性强调了需要制定具体政策,将每个国家的具体社会经济、能源和环境背景结合起来。迄今实施的战略已被证明不足以解决经济发展、能源依赖和可再生能源利用方面的差异,因此有针对性的办法至关重要。这些见解为决策者设计明智的战略提供了坚实的基础,以平衡可持续发展的进展。实施适当的政策可以加速能源转型,优化资源,加强落后地区的发展,从而形成一个更有凝聚力和统一的欧洲能源战略。未来的研究可以将这种方法应用于其他地区或主题领域,扩展变量和地区以产生全球排名,并进一步探索可持续性挑战。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Energy, Sustainability and Society
Energy, Sustainability and Society Energy-Energy Engineering and Power Technology
CiteScore
9.60
自引率
4.10%
发文量
45
审稿时长
13 weeks
期刊介绍: Energy, Sustainability and Society is a peer-reviewed open access journal published under the brand SpringerOpen. It covers topics ranging from scientific research to innovative approaches for technology implementation to analysis of economic, social and environmental impacts of sustainable energy systems.
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