Risk-integrated scheduling for commercial building construction: a BIM and Monte Carlo simulation approach

Abstract

This study presents a risk-integrated scheduling framework for commercial building projects by incorporating Building Information Modelling (BIM), Monte Carlo simulations, and risk analysis using Autodesk Revit, Primavera P6 and Risk Analyzer software. The six-step methodology, comprising deterministic scheduling, uncertainty integration, risk assessment, mitigation, and sensitivity analysis—was applied to systematically evaluate project risk and uncertainties. The BIM modelling process enabled 3D visualization, precise quantity estimation, and structured sequencing, establishing a baseline project duration of 391 days and a cost of ₹51.6 million. Monte Carlo simulations incorporating activity uncertainties indicated a 3.1% increase in the mean project duration to 411 days, with the maximum extending by 15.85% to 453 days, while project costs fluctuated, with the mean rising by 5.05% to ₹54.2 million and the maximum reaching ₹56.9 million. When risk factors such as labour shortages, extreme weather, and regulatory delays were included, the mean duration surged by 61.13% to 630 days, and the maximum increased by 87.21% to 732 days, with costs escalating to a mean of ₹61.8 million (19.85% increase) and a maximum of ₹66.4 million (28.65% increase). Sensitivity analysis identified excavation and structural works as critical contributors to delays and cost overruns. Implementing structured mitigation strategies with a ₹0.6 million budget resulted in mean cost savings of ₹6.28 million (10.14%) and maximum savings of ₹6.98 million (11.28%), while reducing the mean project duration by 21.75% to 493 days. These findings highlight the effectiveness of integrating BIM and Monte Carlo simulations in improving risk-informed decision-making, optimizing resource allocation, and enhancing project resilience.