Impact of sea level rise on aging population’s accessibility to essential services in Honolulu, Hawaii

IF 5.7 2区工程技术 Q1 TRANSPORTATION

Travel Behaviour and Society Pub Date : 2025-09-25 DOI:10.1016/j.tbs.2025.101139

Dingyi Liu, Suwan Shen

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

With demographic shifts showing an increasing elderly population and growth in low-elevation coastal zones, this study investigates the impacts of sea level rise on elderly accessibility to essential services in Honolulu, Hawai’i, exploring the question how sea level rise will affect road accessibility to essential services for the elderly.

Using the Cohort Change Ratio (CCR), we project the elderly population in each Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) over the coming decades. The study identifies road segments and essential facilities at risk under various sea-level rise scenarios (1.1 feet and 2.0 feet) and analyzes network connectivity from each TAZ to essential services.

Results indicate that while infrastructure damage is moderate, accessibility to essential services in vulnerable communities will be significantly impacted, even under 1.1 feet rise. Some areas with high elderly populations could be isolated due to transportation bottlenecks. These findings underline the urgent need for transportation network planning to ensure connectivity for vulnerable elderly populations and suggest that long-term land use planning is crucial for climate change adaptation. The methodology and insights from this study are applicable to other coastal regions and can inform adaptation planning practices nationwide.

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海平面上升对夏威夷檀香山老年人口基本服务可及性的影响

随着人口结构的变化，老年人口的增加和低海拔沿海地区的增长，本研究调查了海平面上升对夏威夷檀香山老年人获得基本服务的可达性的影响，探讨了海平面上升如何影响老年人获得基本服务的道路可达性。我们使用队列变化比率（CCR），预测未来几十年每个交通分析区（TAZ）的老年人口。该研究确定了在不同海平面上升情景下（1.1英尺和2.0英尺）面临风险的路段和基本设施，并分析了从每个TAZ到基本服务的网络连接。结果表明，虽然基础设施受损程度中等，但脆弱社区获得基本服务的机会将受到严重影响，即使海平面上升不到1.1英尺。由于交通瓶颈，一些老年人口较多的地区可能会被隔离。这些发现强调了交通网络规划的迫切需要，以确保弱势老年人的连通性，并表明长期土地利用规划对适应气候变化至关重要。本研究的方法和见解适用于其他沿海地区，并可为全国的适应规划实践提供参考。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Travel Behaviour and Society TRANSPORTATION-

CiteScore

9.80

自引率

7.70%

发文量

109

期刊介绍： Travel Behaviour and Society is an interdisciplinary journal publishing high-quality original papers which report leading edge research in theories, methodologies and applications concerning transportation issues and challenges which involve the social and spatial dimensions. In particular, it provides a discussion forum for major research in travel behaviour, transportation infrastructure, transportation and environmental issues, mobility and social sustainability, transportation geographic information systems (TGIS), transportation and quality of life, transportation data collection and analysis, etc.