Selection in the Operational Domain Requires More Than Grades: High School Marks do not Identify High-Flyers

Abstract

As pilot selection comes under increasing scrutiny and pilot training becomes more theory-intensive, there is growing interest in whether academic metrics—such as high school grades—can predict training outcomes. While high school grades are predictive of academic success in traditional higher education, their predictive value in operational contexts remains underexplored. This study tested whether high school grades predict selection and training success in a professional pilot program. Data from 2111 applicants to LUSA in Sweden (2009–2019) were analyzed. Grades in Swedish, English, and Mathematics were examined as predictors—separately and as a composite score—of three outcomes: (a) admission, (b), theoretical course performance, and (c) graduation from flight training. Of the 2111 applicants, 169 (8%) were accepted and 147 (87%) successfully graduated. Results showed high school grades to have limited to no predictive utility across all outcomes. Only a few weak correlations emerged, but none remained significant after Bonferroni correction, and corrections for range restriction did not alter the findings. Our null findings are indicative of the competencies essential for pilot training not being well captured by academic grades once eligibility criteria are met. This reinforces the need for domain-specific and operationally relevant assessment tools in pilot selection.