Participatory Design Approach in the Use of Scenario Analysis for Futureproofing Medical Education: Case Study.

Abstract

Background: Medical education must evolve to prepare health care professionals for a rapidly changing world. Beyond digital literacy, clinicians must develop new competencies to navigate global megatrends, including shifting disease burden, technological advancements, climate change, and demographic shifts. The future job market will introduce novel roles, and educational institutions must remain adaptable to meet the evolving motivations and expectations of students. Megatrends, broad, transformative forces shaping societies, present both challenges and opportunities for health care education.

Objective: The present work seeks to understand the implications of megatrends for medical education and explore the use of scenario analysis for curriculum design.

Methods: A participatory design approach was employed to conduct a scenario analysis workshop at Trinity College Dublin's School of Medicine in October 2024. Digital connectivity and climate change were selected as key drivers. Participants included medical educators, policymakers, clinicians, and students. Interactive methods such as group discussions, structured boards, and physical cards were utilized to facilitate data collection. Insights were analyzed thematically to identify critical competencies, mindsets, and structural requirements for future medical education.

Results: The scenario analysis revealed key competencies and mindsets necessary for future health care professionals. Essential competencies included complex adaptive systems thinking, patient-centeredness, continuous learning, and participatory health, while essential mindsets encompassed sustainability, prevention-focused care, and technological adaptability. Cross-scenario reflections highlighted the increasing need for interdisciplinary collaboration, ethical leadership, and curriculum flexibility. Actionable steps were identified, including integrating sustainability and digital health into curricula, fostering emotional intelligence in student selection, and incorporating adaptive learning models.

Conclusions: This study demonstrates the value of participatory design in shaping medical education to align with global megatrends. The findings align with existing foresight research by organizations such as the World Health Organization and the European Commission, emphasizing the need for health care professionals to balance technological proficiency with human-centered care. While the study was limited to a single institutional setting, its insights provide a framework for other medical schools to anticipate future challenges and proactively reform curricula. Future research should explore multi-institutional applications and longitudinal studies to validate these findings.