Current understanding and uncertainties associated with climate change and the impact on slope stability: A systematic literature review

Abstract

This study provides a systematic literature review on the current understanding and uncertainties related to climate change and its impact on slope stability, a critical issue in civil engineering and disaster management. Climate change disrupts precipitation patterns, increases soil saturation, and alters vegetation dynamics, significantly affecting slope stability. The review, supported by bibliometric analysis, offers a comprehensive overview of existing knowledge, highlighting key uncertainties and their implications for slope stability.

A detailed search of the Scopus database identified 881 relevant research articles published between 2000 and 2023, with 172 publications selected after rigorous screening. Emerging keywords from the literature indicate a growing focus on high-impact research areas, such as the relationship between climate change and slope stability. The study underscores the critical role of heavy rainfall, especially in clayey soils, in causing slope instability due to increased pore-water pressure and reduced shear strength. Additionally, slope geometry, precisely height and angle, is vital in stability assessments under extreme weather conditions.

It was suggested that Seepage analyses help predict changes in pore-water pressure, informing timely slope stability interventions while heavy rainfall increases pore-water pressure in clayey soils, lowering shear strength and raising landslide risks. Urbanisation and deforestation exacerbate slope instability. The issue of sustainable land management practices, such as reforestation and responsible urban planning, are essential to mitigate climate change impacts and stabilize slopes to addressing these combined natural and human-induced risks.

From the analysis, a typical design safety threshold is FOS >1.0, which indicates stability under most conditions. It is demonstrated from this study that slopes steeper than 30° frequently show FOS <1.0, highlighting a high risk of instability, hence proper drainage measures and slope reinforcement are crucial for steep slopes to mitigate failure risks, as excess water can lead to pore pressure build-up, reducing effective stress and shear strength. Steep slopes (≥30°) should be reinforced using retaining walls, soil nailing, or vegetation with deep root systems to enhance stability.