Impact of temperature and imported cases on the spread and control of dengue fever: Case study of 2019 dengue fever epidemic in Guangzhou and Jinghong cities, China.
{"title":"Impact of temperature and imported cases on the spread and control of dengue fever: Case study of 2019 dengue fever epidemic in Guangzhou and Jinghong cities, China.","authors":"Yue Zhang, Xianghong Zhang, Kaifa Wang","doi":"10.1371/journal.pntd.0013472","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Dengue fever is an acute mosquito-borne disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. In this paper, dengue fever outbreaks in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province and Jinghong, Yunnan Province from July 15 to November 20, 2019 were studied to explore the effects of temperature differences and imported cases on epidemic development patterns. In response to the practical issue of missing mosquito vector data, the feasibility of using meteorological data-driven dynamic model to obtain mosquito vector data was initially validated. Cross-correlation analysis was then used to assess the strong correlation between mosquito vector data and dengue cases. The relationship between bite rate, transmission rate, incubation period, mortality rate and effective reproduction number with respect to daily mean temperature (DMT) and daily temperature difference (DTR) was established by maximum likelihood estimation. The results of sensitivity analysis showed that the most sensitive parameters to basic reproduction number were mosquito mortality and transmission rate of dengue virus between mosquito vectors and humans. The results of comparative analysis showed that the temperature difference between Guangzhou and Jinghong was the main factor contributing to the difference of dengue epidemics in the two cities, because temperature could affect the development of dengue epidemics by affecting the living habits of mosquito vectors. In addition, imported cases and the intensity of epidemic prevention measures are also important factors leading to the difference in dengue epidemics between the two places. Therefore, the key to the prevention and control of dengue fever is to implement mosquito elimination as soon as possible according to the change of temperature, raise public awareness of mosquito prevention and epidemic prevention, and strengthen the control of imported cases.</p>","PeriodicalId":49000,"journal":{"name":"PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases","volume":"19 9","pages":"e0013472"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12453222/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0013472","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/9/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PARASITOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Dengue fever is an acute mosquito-borne disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. In this paper, dengue fever outbreaks in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province and Jinghong, Yunnan Province from July 15 to November 20, 2019 were studied to explore the effects of temperature differences and imported cases on epidemic development patterns. In response to the practical issue of missing mosquito vector data, the feasibility of using meteorological data-driven dynamic model to obtain mosquito vector data was initially validated. Cross-correlation analysis was then used to assess the strong correlation between mosquito vector data and dengue cases. The relationship between bite rate, transmission rate, incubation period, mortality rate and effective reproduction number with respect to daily mean temperature (DMT) and daily temperature difference (DTR) was established by maximum likelihood estimation. The results of sensitivity analysis showed that the most sensitive parameters to basic reproduction number were mosquito mortality and transmission rate of dengue virus between mosquito vectors and humans. The results of comparative analysis showed that the temperature difference between Guangzhou and Jinghong was the main factor contributing to the difference of dengue epidemics in the two cities, because temperature could affect the development of dengue epidemics by affecting the living habits of mosquito vectors. In addition, imported cases and the intensity of epidemic prevention measures are also important factors leading to the difference in dengue epidemics between the two places. Therefore, the key to the prevention and control of dengue fever is to implement mosquito elimination as soon as possible according to the change of temperature, raise public awareness of mosquito prevention and epidemic prevention, and strengthen the control of imported cases.
期刊介绍：
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases publishes research devoted to the pathology, epidemiology, prevention, treatment and control of the neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), as well as relevant public policy.
The NTDs are defined as a group of poverty-promoting chronic infectious diseases, which primarily occur in rural areas and poor urban areas of low-income and middle-income countries. Their impact on child health and development, pregnancy, and worker productivity, as well as their stigmatizing features limit economic stability.
All aspects of these diseases are considered, including:
Pathogenesis
Clinical features
Pharmacology and treatment
Diagnosis
Epidemiology
Vector biology
Vaccinology and prevention
Demographic, ecological and social determinants
Public health and policy aspects (including cost-effectiveness analyses).
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
