Modeling climate-driven habitat suitability of vulnerable ungulates in Egypt’s protected areas

Abstract

Understanding how species respond to climate change is crucial for effective conservation. This knowledge is essential for developing effective adaptive strategies, as climate-induced shifts in species distributions make protected areas a vital tool for future conservation planning. Protected areas may become ineffective if they remain within their current geographic boundaries without considering climate change in shaping critical climatic refuges for these species. Therefore, in this study, we used Species Distribution Models (SDMs) as a tool to analyze the impact of climate change on two vulnerable Egyptian ungulates: the Nubian ibex (Capra nubiana) and the dorcas gazelle (Gazella dorcas). We mapped their habitat suitability under current conditions and future “middle path” scenarios for the years 2050 and 2070. Our findings indicate that the Nubian ibex’s current habitats are concentrated in South Sinai and the Eastern Desert mountains, while the Dorcas gazelle has a broader distribution across Sinai, the Eastern Desert, and parts of the Western Desert. While both species are expected to lose parts of their current range, they are also projected to expand into new areas. For the Nubian ibex, suitable habitat is expected to remain largely stable, with a projected increase of approximately 23.9 % by 2050 and 24.5 % by 2070. Concurrently, the species is projected to lose about 10.2 % by 2050 and 10.5 % by 2070. The Dorcas gazelle is projected to gain a substantial amount of new habitat—about 27.1 % by 2050 and 27.9 % by 2070. However, this increase is balanced by an anticipated loss of approximately 25.6 % by 2050 and 25.7 % by 2070. The results showed that protected areas in Egypt play a vital role in preserving these species, as indicated by the high coverage rate. They currently cover over 56% of the Nubian ibex’s potential distribution, which is projected to increase to 60 % by 2050 and 59 % by 2070. For the Dorcas gazelle, coverage is currently 34 %, but is projected to decline to 31 % by 2050 and 30 % by 2070. Based on these findings, effective management of protected areas, including continuous monitoring, evaluation, and adaptive boundary adjustments, is crucial for conservation. This is especially important in the Red Sea Governorate, and should include creating new protected areas with stakeholder involvement. We recommend investing in long-term field surveys and building robust databases to understand future changes in species’ habitats, ecological conditions, and threats. This will help develop strong in-situ and ex-situ conservation strategies for protected areas.