Disappearance of rural settlements in China: Characterizing and interpreting the implementation of the “increasing vs. decreasing balance” policy

Abstract

The contradiction between urban construction and farmland protection is a prominent unresolved issue in global urbanization, thus reflecting the challenge of balancing economic development and food security. China's increasing vs. decreasing balance (IDB) policy provides a feasible approach to resolve this contradiction and promote the sustainable use of land resources. However, the outcomes of the IDB policy in this regard remain unclear because of the prolonged lack of comprehensive data on its implementation. Therefore, to investigate the implementation and evaluate the effectiveness of the IDB policy, this study adopts China's National Land Resources Survey data and observes the disappearance of rural settlements (DRS) within the land use change dynamics in Shandong Province during 2009–2019. A binary logit regression model is employed to identify the key factors influencing the successful policy implementation. Results indicate that over the past decade, the area of DRS was only 14.0 kha, reflecting a relatively limited implementation of the policy and the inability to reconcile urban expansion with farmland protection effectively. Moreover, significant spatial imbalance exists in the supply and demand of land quotas for construction at the county level, and non-agricultural land use and cropland abandonment have further undermined the effectiveness of farmland protection. An examination of the spatial heterogeneity in the DRS reveals that successful policy implementation originates from dual influence of regional characteristics and settlement characteristics. This study provides practical implications for optimizing China's land use policies and contributes to global efforts in sustainable land management.