Associations of extreme weather, El Niño events, and streamflow with the annual apparent survival of a migratory riparian bird in the western United States

IF 2.1 3区 生物学 Q1 ORNITHOLOGY
Ibis Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI:10.1111/ibi.13407
Liz Allocca, Kyle D. Kittelberger, Çağan Hakkı Şekercioğlu, Diana Bell, James J. Gilroy
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Abstract

Neotropical avian migrants are affected by environmental change throughout their full annual cycles. In the southwestern United States, these species rely on riparian corridors for food and water, for migration stopover sites, and as breeding grounds. Climate change imperils these essential ecosystems, with the southwest predicted to become hotter and more arid, thus resulting in more frequent extreme heat and drought. The tropical forests of Latin America, where many Neotropical migrants overwinter, face similar threats. The impacts of these changes on the demography of migratory riparian species remains poorly understood. We analysed 13 years of capture–mark–recapture bird banding data (2011–2023) from southern Utah to examine the effects of age-class and a range of environmental variables on the survival of a common migratory and riparian breeding bird, the Western Yellow-breasted Chat Icteria virens auricollis. We found that adult chats had a significantly greater probability of survival than first-year birds (mean survival adults: 0.53 ± 0.11; juveniles: 0.12 ± 0.07). While rates of survival differed for the two age-classes, the variability was closely matched across years, indicating that both adults and juveniles are impacted similarly by ecological factors. We also found that annual survival rates were particularly sensitive to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, with El Niño events being associated with reduced chat survival. This suggests a key negative impact of drier, hotter conditions during migration and on the wintering grounds in Central America—conditions that may become increasingly extreme with future climate change. We also found near-significant negative effects of breeding season heat events (% of days with maximum temperature exceeding the 90th percentile of a 30-year baseline) and spring precipitation, as well as a potential positive association between chat survival and breeding season streamflow. Our results not only demonstrate the importance of environmental variation across the full annual cycle of chats in driving variation in survival, but also highlight how future climate change may impact the demography of a key riparian species.

Abstract Image

在美国西部,极端天气、厄尔尼诺Niño事件和河流流量与每年候鸟的明显生存之间的联系
新热带候鸟在其整个年周期中都受到环境变化的影响。在美国西南部,这些物种依靠河岸走廊获得食物和水,作为迁徙的中途停留地和繁殖地。气候变化危及这些重要的生态系统,预计西南地区将变得更加炎热和干旱,从而导致更频繁的极端高温和干旱。拉丁美洲的热带森林是许多新热带移民越冬的地方,也面临着类似的威胁。这些变化对迁徙河岸物种的人口统计的影响仍然知之甚少。我们分析了犹他州南部13年(2011-2023年)的捕获-标记-再捕获鸟类带数据,以研究年龄类别和一系列环境变量对一种常见的候鸟和滨水繁殖鸟西部黄胸Chat Icteria virens auricollis生存的影响。我们发现成虫的存活率明显高于新生鸟(成虫平均存活率:0.53±0.11;幼鸟平均存活率:0.12±0.07)。虽然两个年龄组的存活率不同,但变异性在多年间密切匹配,表明成年和幼年都受到生态因素的相似影响。我们还发现年存活率对El Niño-Southern振荡(ENSO)周期特别敏感,El Niño事件与降低的种群存活率有关。这表明,在迁徙期间和中美洲越冬地,干旱、炎热的条件会产生关键的负面影响——随着未来气候变化,这些条件可能会变得越来越极端。我们还发现繁殖季节的高温事件(最高温度超过30年基线的第90个百分位数的天数百分比)和春季降水具有接近显著的负影响,而聊天存活率与繁殖季节流量之间存在潜在的正相关关系。我们的研究结果不仅证明了环境变化在整个年周期中对推动生存变化的重要性,而且还强调了未来气候变化如何影响关键河岸物种的人口统计。
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来源期刊
Ibis
Ibis 生物-鸟类学
CiteScore
4.60
自引率
9.50%
发文量
118
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: IBIS publishes original papers, reviews, short communications and forum articles reflecting the forefront of international research activity in ornithological science, with special emphasis on the behaviour, ecology, evolution and conservation of birds. IBIS aims to publish as rapidly as is consistent with the requirements of peer-review and normal publishing constraints.
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