Economic Growth, Governance and Endangered Species Conservation in Africa

Abstract

This study examines how macroeconomic and governance factors affect wildlife conservation in Africa, focusing on three flagship species: the okapi (DRC), African elephant (Kenya) and mountain gorilla (Rwanda). Using reconstructed population data and Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM), we identify critical thresholds for successful conservation. Results show a U-shaped relationship between GDP per capita and animal populations, with biodiversity recovery only occurring above a specific income threshold. Governance quality exhibits a similar pattern, requiring a minimum level of institutional quality to benefit forest cover and wildlife. Unemployment has substantial negative effects, reducing animal populations both directly (through poaching and mining) and indirectly (via habitat loss). The findings highlight that conservation success depends not only on ecological measures but also on inclusive economic growth, job creation and institutional reform.