Reliability analysis of a lead-bismuth cooled passive system based on AL-I surrogate model

IF 2.3 3区工程技术 Q1 NUCLEAR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Annals of Nuclear Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-19 DOI:10.1016/j.anucene.2025.111875

Feiyang Li , Youwei Zeng , Pengcheng Zhao , Zijing Liu , Wei Li

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Passive residual heat removal systems ensure the safe operation of lead–bismuth fast reactors. However, the resistance of such systems is similar to natural driving forces, while small fluctuations in the surrounding environment and material parameters can cause system failure; thus, analyzing the reliability of passive residual heat removal systems is important for lead–bismuth cooling. This study utilizes the passive system in the lead–bismuth eutectic loop of the TALL-3D experimental facility and proposes a reliability analysis based on the active learning-integration (AL-I) surrogate model. The AL-I surrogate model is constructed first, and single-failure and multiple-failure region validations are performed to ensure accuracy and robustness of the model. Subsequently, the sensitivity and reliability of the TALL-3D non-energetic system is determined. The active learning ensemble surrogate model only needs 99 low-cost numerical calculations to obtain a reliable result with a failure rate of 0.0650%. This model not only significantly reduces the computational resources and time costs, but also allows high-precision failure probability assessments. Therefore, this study shows that the AL-I surrogate model is advantageous for lead–bismuth cooled non-energetic waste heat discharge systems and offers solid technical support for engineering such systems.

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基于AL-I替代模型的铅铋冷却被动系统可靠性分析

被动余热排除系统保证了铅铋快堆的安全运行。然而，这种系统的阻力类似于自然驱动力，而周围环境和材料参数的微小波动可能导致系统失效；因此，分析被动余热排除系统的可靠性对铅铋冷却具有重要意义。本研究利用TALL-3D实验装置铅铋共晶回路中的被动系统，提出了基于主动学习-集成（AL-I）替代模型的可靠性分析。首先构建AL-I代理模型，并进行单故障和多故障区域验证，以确保模型的准确性和鲁棒性。随后，确定了TALL-3D无能系统的灵敏度和可靠性。主动学习集成代理模型只需要99次低成本的数值计算，就能获得不合格率为0.0650%的可靠结果。该模型不仅大大减少了计算资源和时间成本，而且可以实现高精度的故障概率评估。因此，本研究表明AL-I替代模型对铅铋冷却无能废热排放系统是有利的，为此类系统的工程化提供了坚实的技术支持。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Annals of Nuclear Energy 工程技术-核科学技术

CiteScore

4.30

自引率

21.10%

发文量

632

审稿时长

7.3 months

期刊介绍： Annals of Nuclear Energy provides an international medium for the communication of original research, ideas and developments in all areas of the field of nuclear energy science and technology. Its scope embraces nuclear fuel reserves, fuel cycles and cost, materials, processing, system and component technology (fission only), design and optimization, direct conversion of nuclear energy sources, environmental control, reactor physics, heat transfer and fluid dynamics, structural analysis, fuel management, future developments, nuclear fuel and safety, nuclear aerosol, neutron physics, computer technology (both software and hardware), risk assessment, radioactive waste disposal and reactor thermal hydraulics. Papers submitted to Annals need to demonstrate a clear link to nuclear power generation/nuclear engineering. Papers which deal with pure nuclear physics, pure health physics, imaging, or attenuation and shielding properties of concretes and various geological materials are not within the scope of the journal. Also, papers that deal with policy or economics are not within the scope of the journal.