Greenhouse gas emission dynamics and climate change mitigation efforts toward sustainability in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region

Abstract

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emssions from fossil fuel consumption are driving global climate change. This study applied the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) model and pairwise panel Granger causality test to explore the relationships of GHG emissions with gross domestic product (GDP), population, urbanization, natural resource rents, foreign direct investment (FDI), and renewable energy consumption in 12 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries (Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Qatar, Somalia, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, Tunisia, and Yemen) from 1990 to 2023. Due to the limited data on renewable energy after 2020, the coverage of renewable energy consumption is from 1990 to 2021. Findings showed that Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Algeria, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar are the top 5 GHG emitters in the MENA region, with the GHG emissions of the energy sector rising fastest among all sectors. Results also indicated that a 1.00% increase in GDP, population, urbanization, natural resource rents, and FDI raises GHG emissions by 0.48%, 0.61%, 0.86%, 0.29%, and 0.11%, respectively. Conversely, a 1.00% increase in renewable energy consumption reduces GHG emissions by 0.13%. Effective policies promoting renewable energy investment and the adoption of renewable energy could significantly reduce electricity costs and GHG emissions, contributing to achieving climate goals, such as net-zero emissions and environmental sustainability. Additionally, the increase of renewable energy consumption and technology development would improve energy efficiency, create jobs, and stimulate economic growth in the MENA region. This study recommends tailored policy instruments to support the transition to low-emission technologies and strategies.