Fuzzy Cost-risk management of HEV-penetrated power-to-ammonia multi-energy buildings considering the limited production flexibility

Abstract

The traditional multi-energy building generally focuses on economically optimizing the energy cost, whereas the increasing complexity of energy couplings and conflicting energy cost/risk are often overlooked. This paper proposes fuzzy cost-risk management of a power-to-ammonia (P2A) multi-energy building considering the limited production flexibility. In this model, the solar-wind multi-energy complementarities are exploited on the basis of P2A electrolytic thermo-electrochemical effects, which are converted and regulated via an energy hub. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) are envisioned as multi-energy load and managed through a novel real-time multi-energy supply–demand pricing mechanism. The limited ammonia production flexibility is considered and modeled as a first-order transition to capture the dynamic regulation process of P2A. The formulated cost-risk management problem is captured using the mean-variance method to articulate the risk linked to forecasting uncertainties, which is subsequently addressed through fuzzy optimization to achieve a trade-off between two conflicting objectives. Simulation analyses implemented in a community building environment validate the superiority and effectiveness of the proposed approach, achieving 12.03 % cost reduction and 19.25 % improvement of production flexibility modeling.