Meteorological impacts on aviation carbon emissions during takeoff and landing at 25 major global airports

Abstract

Aviation plays a pivotal role in facilitating global economic integration, yet its associated greenhouse gas emissions and climate impacts have garnered increasing scrutiny. This study examined how meteorological conditions affect aircraft carbon emissions during the landing and takeoff (LTO) cycle, focusing on the world’s 25 busiest international airports in 2019. We integrated flight level emissions with high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis data and estimated a fixed effects panel model to quantify the effects of temperature, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, cloud base height, low-level cloud cover, precipitation, and snow cover on emissions intensity. The results indicate that meteorological factors exert statistically significant and heterogeneous impacts across flight phases. Specifically, higher temperatures, lower atmospheric pressure, reduced cloud base height, and intense precipitation or snow cover are associated with increased per-flight carbon emissions, with particularly pronounced effects during taxiing operations. Sensitivity also varied across climate zones, airport infrastructure, and operating procedures, underscoring substantial spatial heterogeneity. These findings support the design of weather adaptive operating strategies and decarbonization pathways in aviation and provide a more nuanced understanding of weather driven variability in emissions.