Forecasting age-standardized incidence rates of gastric cancer from 1990-2050 in Japan according to H. pylori prevalence and eradication scenarios.

IF 5.5 2区 医学 Q1 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY
Byron Sigel, Eiko Saito, Daisuke Yoneoka, Tomohiro Matsuda, Kota Katanoda
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: This study examines the influence of H. pylori eradication policies on gastric cancer incidence rates in Japan utilizing nationally representative registry data. It evaluates the impact of the H. pylori eradication policies introduced in 2000 and 2013, along with future eradication scenarios, on age-standardized gastric cancer rates.

Methods: Data from prefectural cancer registries and national health surveys were analyzed using Poisson regression and autoregressive integrated moving average models. Predictors such as H. pylori prevalence, alcohol consumption, salt intake, body mass index, and smoking prevalence were included. The study assessed past policies by comparing incidence rates with and without the policy changes of 2000 and 2013. Future policies were evaluated through five scenarios, incorporating the cumulative impact of eradication efforts from 2000 and 2013, and a projected 75% reduction by 2050. The evaluation also compared eradication targets for age groups 40-69 and 20-39.

Results: Past H. pylori eradication policies were associated with decreased age-standardized gastric cancer incidence rates in Japan, reducing the rate from a projected 39.3 per 100,000 without the 2000 and 2013 policies to 24.9 per 100,000 under current policies. Future policies, integrating the cumulative effects of the 2000 and 2013 eradication efforts and projecting a 75% reduction in H. pylori prevalence, were projected to further reduce gastric cancer incidence.

Conclusion: The H. pylori eradication policies of 2000 and 2013 have significantly reduced gastric cancer incidence rates in Japan. Model projections suggest that expanded eradication efforts could lead to additional reductions, further lowering the future burden of gastric cancer in Japan.

根据幽门螺杆菌流行和根除情况预测1990-2050年日本胃癌年龄标准化发病率
背景:本研究利用具有全国代表性的登记数据,探讨了幽门螺杆菌根除政策对日本胃癌发病率的影响。它评估了2000年和2013年引入的幽门螺杆菌根除政策以及未来根除方案对年龄标准化胃癌发病率的影响。方法:采用泊松回归和自回归综合移动平均模型对地市级癌症登记和全国健康调查数据进行分析。预测因素包括幽门螺杆菌患病率、饮酒量、盐摄入量、体重指数和吸烟率。该研究通过比较2000年和2013年政策变化前后的发病率来评估过去的政策。未来的政策通过五种情景进行评估,包括2000年和2013年根除工作的累积影响,以及预计到2050年减少75%。该评价还比较了40-69岁和20-39岁年龄组的根除目标。结果:过去的幽门螺杆菌根除政策与日本年龄标准化胃癌发病率的下降有关,从2000年和2013年政策下预计的39.3 / 10万降低到现行政策下的24.9 / 10万。未来的政策,综合2000年和2013年根除工作的累积效应,预计幽门螺杆菌患病率将降低75%,预计将进一步降低胃癌发病率。结论:日本2000年和2013年的根除幽门螺杆菌政策显著降低了胃癌发病率。模型预测表明,扩大根除工作可能导致进一步减少,进一步降低日本未来胃癌的负担。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Journal of Gastroenterology
Journal of Gastroenterology 医学-胃肠肝病学
CiteScore
12.20
自引率
1.60%
发文量
99
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Gastroenterology, which is the official publication of the Japanese Society of Gastroenterology, publishes Original Articles (Alimentary Tract/Liver, Pancreas, and Biliary Tract), Review Articles, Letters to the Editors and other articles on all aspects of the field of gastroenterology. Significant contributions relating to basic research, theory, and practice are welcomed. These publications are designed to disseminate knowledge in this field to a worldwide audience, and accordingly, its editorial board has an international membership.
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