Scenario-based planning for urban sustainability: Envisioning an ecological city in Shandiz, Iran by 2032

IF 2 4区社会学 Q2 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY

Evaluation and Program Planning Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI:10.1016/j.evalprogplan.2025.102711

Forouzan Taheri , Mahdi Kolahi

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Urban sustainability in developing countries is often hindered by infrastructural limitations and the complexity of environmental uncertainties. This study applies scenario-based planning to explore future pathways for the development of an ecological city in Shandiz, Razavi Khorasan Province, Iran, by 2032. Following a six-step scenario planning framework, the research employed a mixed-methods approach, including expert questionnaires to identify and prioritize key drivers, and semi-structured interviews using saturation theory to construct scenario logics. The analysis yielded three distinct future scenarios: the Ideal City (sustainable and inclusive development), the Command City (state-driven but fragile planning), and the Ruined City (unsustainable and fragmented growth). Strategies were formulated to guide urban stakeholders toward realizing the most desirable future. The study contributes to the field of urban futures by demonstrating how participatory scenario planning can support informed decision-making under uncertainty and promote sustainable urban transitions.

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基于场景的城市可持续性规划：设想到2032年伊朗尚迪兹的生态城市。

发展中国家的城市可持续性往往受到基础设施限制和环境不确定性复杂性的阻碍。本研究采用基于场景的规划，探索到2032年伊朗拉扎维呼罗珊省尚迪兹生态城市的未来发展路径。根据六步情景规划框架，本研究采用了混合方法，包括专家问卷来识别和优先考虑关键驱动因素，以及利用饱和理论构建情景逻辑的半结构化访谈。分析得出了三种不同的未来情景：理想城市（可持续和包容性发展）、指挥城市（国家驱动但脆弱的规划）和废墟城市（不可持续和碎片化的增长）。制定了指导城市利益相关者实现最理想未来的战略。该研究通过展示参与式情景规划如何支持不确定性下的明智决策并促进可持续的城市转型，为城市未来领域做出了贡献。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Evaluation and Program Planning SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY-

CiteScore

3.10

自引率

6.20%

发文量

112

期刊介绍： Evaluation and Program Planning is based on the principle that the techniques and methods of evaluation and planning transcend the boundaries of specific fields and that relevant contributions to these areas come from people representing many different positions, intellectual traditions, and interests. In order to further the development of evaluation and planning, we publish articles from the private and public sectors in a wide range of areas: organizational development and behavior, training, planning, human resource development, health and mental, social services, mental retardation, corrections, substance abuse, and education.