A Curve-Fitting Approach for Generating Long-Term Projections of COVID-19 Mortality.

IF 1.8 4区医学 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI:10.1017/dmp.2025.10188

George Kafatos, George Seegan, Bagmeet Behera, David Neasham, Brian Bradbury, Neil Accortt

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objective: This study aims to develop a curve-fitting approach for long-term COVID-19 mortality projections and evaluate its effectiveness as a scalable, data-driven tool for pandemic forecasting.

Methods: The basic characteristics of a dynamic curve-fitting approach capable of generating long-term projections are described. To demonstrate its utility, the model was retrospectively applied using mortality data from the start of the pandemic, January to June 2020 (6-month data), to project into the period between June 2020 and April 2021 (11-month projections).

Results: For scenarios with the best fit, the difference between observed and projected total deaths varied in the projection period between 7.7% and 28.2%.

Discussion: When the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, there was lack of understanding regarding its long-term impact. Available mathematical models were complex and typically provided short- and mid-term projections. The approach described generates long-term projections that are relatively easy to implement and can be enhanced to include other parameters such as vaccine impact or virus variants. The method could prove to be a valuable tool during a future pandemic.

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生成COVID-19死亡率长期预测的曲线拟合方法

目的：本研究旨在开发一种用于COVID-19长期死亡率预测的曲线拟合方法，并评估其作为可扩展的、数据驱动的大流行预测工具的有效性。方法：描述了能够产生长期预测的动态曲线拟合方法的基本特征。为了证明其实用性，使用大流行开始时的死亡率数据（2020年1月至6月的6个月数据）对该模型进行了回顾性应用，以预测2020年6月至2021年4月期间的情况（11个月的预测）。结果：对于最佳拟合的情景，在预测期间，观察到的总死亡人数与预测的总死亡人数之间的差异在7.7%至28.2%之间。当2019冠状病毒病大流行于2020年初开始时，人们对其长期影响缺乏了解。现有的数学模型很复杂，通常只提供短期和中期预测。所描述的方法产生了相对容易实施的长期预测，并可加以加强，纳入疫苗影响或病毒变异等其他参数。在未来的大流行期间，这种方法可能被证明是一种有价值的工具。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-

CiteScore

4.40

自引率

7.40%

发文量

258

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness is the first comprehensive and authoritative journal emphasizing public health preparedness and disaster response for all health care and public health professionals globally. The journal seeks to translate science into practice and integrate medical and public health perspectives. With the events of September 11, the subsequent anthrax attacks, the tsunami in Indonesia, hurricane Katrina, SARS and the H1N1 Influenza Pandemic, all health care and public health professionals must be prepared to respond to emergency situations. In support of these pressing public health needs, Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness is committed to the medical and public health communities who are the stewards of the health and security of citizens worldwide.