Identifying and reducing climate uncertainty in fisheries management reference points

IF 2.3 2区 农林科学 Q2 FISHERIES
André E. Punt , Michael G. Dalton , W. Christopher Long , Wei Cheng , Albert J. Hermann , Kirstin K. Holsman
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Modelling has predicted that reductions in ocean pH and increases in temperature will reduce vital rates (survival and growth) of North Pacific crab stocks and hence the target levels of fishing mortality consistent with sustainable harvesting. However, these predictions have been based on the best estimates of the effects of changes in ocean pH and temperature on vital rates from laboratory experiments. We quantified the effects of several climate and market sources of variability in Alaskan red king and southern Tanner crab fisheries on predicted optimal fishing mortality rates, including changes in ocean chemistry and temperature on vital rates, non-linear relationships between prices, costs and catch, and the uncertainty in population dynamics models. The declines in survival consistently lead to predictions of a reduction in productivity and hence the optimal level of fishing intensity over time, but the extent of change is uncertain. Uncertainty related to the effects of ocean pH and temperature on vital rates and variability among Earth System Models and future emission scenarios are the dominant sources of uncertainty, although potential fluctuations in prices and costs are also consequential. Further, simulations are used to explore the relationship between changes in ocean pH or temperature and vital rates (additional experimental replicates and a wider range of levels of ocean pH in experiments) and hence identify approaches to reduce the uncertainty in estimates of future projections of target fishing mortality rates. Importantly, we demonstrate that optimal approaches to reducing uncertainty depend on life stage (juvenile growth for red king crab and larval survival for southern Tanner crab), and the optimal experiment depends on species (increasing the range of pH levels for red king crab vs increasing sample sizes for southern Tanner crab). The results of this study can inform priorities for future ocean acidification-related laboratory experiments and provide a basis for evaluating “investment in research” more broadly.
确定和减少渔业管理参考点的气候不确定性
模型预测,海洋pH值的降低和温度的升高将降低北太平洋螃蟹种群的重要率(生存和生长),因此与可持续捕捞相一致的捕捞死亡率目标水平。然而,这些预测是基于实验室实验对海洋pH值和温度变化对生命率影响的最佳估计。我们量化了阿拉斯加红王蟹和南坦纳蟹渔业中几种气候和市场变化源对预测最佳捕捞死亡率的影响,包括海洋化学和温度变化对生命率的影响,价格、成本和捕捞量之间的非线性关系,以及种群动态模型的不确定性。存活率的下降一直导致生产力下降的预测,因此随着时间的推移捕捞强度的最佳水平,但变化的程度是不确定的。与海洋pH值和温度对地球系统模式间生命速率和变率的影响以及未来排放情景有关的不确定性是不确定性的主要来源,尽管价格和成本的潜在波动也会产生影响。此外,模拟还用于探索海洋pH值或温度变化与生命速率之间的关系(实验中增加的实验重复和更大范围的海洋pH值水平),从而确定减少对未来目标捕鱼死亡率预测估计的不确定性的方法。重要的是,我们证明了减少不确定性的最佳方法取决于生命阶段(红王蟹的幼蟹生长和南坦纳蟹的幼虫存活),最佳实验取决于物种(增加红王蟹的pH值范围与增加南坦纳蟹的样本量)。这项研究的结果可以为未来与海洋酸化相关的实验室实验提供优先事项,并为更广泛地评估“研究投资”提供基础。
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来源期刊
Fisheries Research
Fisheries Research 农林科学-渔业
CiteScore
4.50
自引率
16.70%
发文量
294
审稿时长
15 weeks
期刊介绍: This journal provides an international forum for the publication of papers in the areas of fisheries science, fishing technology, fisheries management and relevant socio-economics. The scope covers fisheries in salt, brackish and freshwater systems, and all aspects of associated ecology, environmental aspects of fisheries, and economics. Both theoretical and practical papers are acceptable, including laboratory and field experimental studies relevant to fisheries. Papers on the conservation of exploitable living resources are welcome. Review and Viewpoint articles are also published. As the specified areas inevitably impinge on and interrelate with each other, the approach of the journal is multidisciplinary, and authors are encouraged to emphasise the relevance of their own work to that of other disciplines. The journal is intended for fisheries scientists, biological oceanographers, gear technologists, economists, managers, administrators, policy makers and legislators.
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