Improving long-term prediction in industrial processes using neural networks with noise-added training data

Abstract

Accurate long-term prediction in industrial processes is essential for efficient control and operation. This study investigates the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for forecasting temperature in complex thermal systems, with a focus on enhancing model robustness under real-world conditions. A key innovation in this work is the intentional introduction of Gaussian noise into the training data to emulate sensor inaccuracies and environmental uncertainties, thereby improving the network's generalization capability. The target application is the prediction of water temperature in a non-stirred reservoir heated by two electric heaters, where phase change, thermal gradients, and sensor placement introduce significant modeling challenges. The proposed feedforward neural network architecture, comprising 90 neurons across three hidden layers, demonstrated a substantial reduction in long-term prediction error from 11.23 % to 2.02 % when trained with noise-augmented data. This result highlights the effectiveness of noise injection as a regularization strategy for improving performance in forecasting tasks. The study further contrasts this approach with Random Forest model and confirms the superior generalization and stability of the noise-trained ANN. These findings establish a scalable methodology for improving predictive accuracy in industrial systems characterized by limited data, strong nonlinearities, and uncertain measurements.