Regional disparities in marine carbon sink development in china: From an opportunity inequality perspective

Abstract

Based on the theory of opportunity inequality, this study constructs an analytical framework encompassing nine opportunity inequality factors including national policies, demand dynamics, and talent support. Utilizing the MLD index and Shapley value decomposition method, we quantify the ocean carbon sink opportunity inequality index and its spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics across three major marine economic circles (northern, eastern, and Southern) from 2010 to 2022. The findings reveal that: (1) Temporospatial analysis demonstrates an overall fluctuating upward trend in opportunity inequality indices. The northern Marine Economic Circle exhibits the highest and continuously rising inequality index, followed by the southern Circle with significant growth, while the eastern circle maintains the lowest and relatively stable index. (2) Factor decomposition identifies national policies, demand dynamics, and coastline resources as key dynamic contributors to regional disparities in marine carbon sink development, though their relative contributions display temporal variability. (3) Mechanism analysis reveals that opportunity inequality factors indirectly amplify regional disparities through local blue carbon financial policies and factor inputs. The northern Circle demonstrates predominant influences from marine innovation investment and regional blue carbon policies, the southern circle shows highest contributions from marine environmental factors, while the eastern circle is primarily affected by marine innovation investment. Accordingly, this study proposes policy recommendations including establishing differentiated blue carbon financial support systems, enhancing policy coordination, and strengthening technological R&D and talent cultivation in marine carbon sinks, aiming to promote regional equity and achieve the dual carbon goals.