Modeling the Impact of Antimicrobial Resistance on Medical Preparedness and Response for a Nuclear or Radiological Public Health Emergency.

IF 1.8 4区医学 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI:10.1017/dmp.2025.9

Andrew J Phipps, Sue K Cammarata, Julia A Falvey, Matthew A Clay, Cameron D Bess, Mary J Homer, Mark T Albrecht

{"title":"Modeling the Impact of Antimicrobial Resistance on Medical Preparedness and Response for a Nuclear or Radiological Public Health Emergency.","authors":"Andrew J Phipps, Sue K Cammarata, Julia A Falvey, Matthew A Clay, Cameron D Bess, Mary J Homer, Mark T Albrecht","doi":"10.1017/dmp.2025.9","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Objective: Antimicrobial resistant infections are expected to increase the rate of antibiotic treatment failure in patients during a mass casualty incident. We aim to examine the potential impact of rising antimicrobial resistance (AMR) on medical preparedness and response to a nuclear detonation in the United States (U.S.) using a model to estimate the number of casualties with secondary bacterial infections overlaid with real-world data on the burden of antibiotic-resistant pathogens.Methods: The population of injured individuals needing treatment was estimated from a simulation involving a 100-kiloton nuclear detonation in a major U.S. metropolitan area. Contemporary antibiotic resistance rates for eight key bacterial pathogens were derived from the SENTRY Microbiology Visualization Platform.Results: Our model estimated that up to 65% of the casualties could be at risk to develop a secondary bacterial infection requiring antibiotic treatment which, when combined with the increasing burden of AMR in U.S., could result in up to one third of those patients who are injured and infected being at risk for treatment failure due to antibiotic resistance.Conclusions: The burden of AMR on the emergency response to a mass casualty incident, as described, could be a significant hinderance to efforts to treat infections and protect lives.","PeriodicalId":54390,"journal":{"name":"Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness","volume":"19 ","pages":"e259"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2025.9","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objective: Antimicrobial resistant infections are expected to increase the rate of antibiotic treatment failure in patients during a mass casualty incident. We aim to examine the potential impact of rising antimicrobial resistance (AMR) on medical preparedness and response to a nuclear detonation in the United States (U.S.) using a model to estimate the number of casualties with secondary bacterial infections overlaid with real-world data on the burden of antibiotic-resistant pathogens.

Methods: The population of injured individuals needing treatment was estimated from a simulation involving a 100-kiloton nuclear detonation in a major U.S. metropolitan area. Contemporary antibiotic resistance rates for eight key bacterial pathogens were derived from the SENTRY Microbiology Visualization Platform.

Results: Our model estimated that up to 65% of the casualties could be at risk to develop a secondary bacterial infection requiring antibiotic treatment which, when combined with the increasing burden of AMR in U.S., could result in up to one third of those patients who are injured and infected being at risk for treatment failure due to antibiotic resistance.

Conclusions: The burden of AMR on the emergency response to a mass casualty incident, as described, could be a significant hinderance to efforts to treat infections and protect lives.

查看原文本刊更多论文

模拟抗菌素耐药性对核或放射性突发公共卫生事件的医疗准备和响应的影响

目的：在大规模伤亡事件中，耐药感染预计会增加患者抗生素治疗失败率。我们的目的是研究抗菌素耐药性（AMR）上升对美国核爆炸医疗准备和反应的潜在影响，使用一个模型来估计继发性细菌感染的伤亡人数，并与抗生素耐药病原体负担的真实数据重叠。方法：需要治疗的受伤个体的人口估计从模拟涉及一个10万吨核爆炸在美国主要大都市地区。八种关键细菌病原体的当代抗生素耐药率来自SENTRY微生物可视化平台。结果：我们的模型估计，高达65%的伤亡人员可能有继发性细菌感染的风险，需要抗生素治疗，再加上美国抗生素耐药性负担的增加，可能导致多达三分之一的受伤和感染患者因抗生素耐药性而面临治疗失败的风险。结论：正如所述，抗菌素耐药性对大规模伤亡事件应急反应的负担可能会严重阻碍治疗感染和保护生命的努力。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-

CiteScore

4.40

自引率

7.40%

发文量

258

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness is the first comprehensive and authoritative journal emphasizing public health preparedness and disaster response for all health care and public health professionals globally. The journal seeks to translate science into practice and integrate medical and public health perspectives. With the events of September 11, the subsequent anthrax attacks, the tsunami in Indonesia, hurricane Katrina, SARS and the H1N1 Influenza Pandemic, all health care and public health professionals must be prepared to respond to emergency situations. In support of these pressing public health needs, Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness is committed to the medical and public health communities who are the stewards of the health and security of citizens worldwide.