Understanding industrial land allocation in rural regions of China: spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanisms

IF 7 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

Habitat International Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI:10.1016/j.habitatint.2025.103574

Haimeng Shi , Sun Zhang , Meng Li , Wei Chen , Yao Luo , Qiao Li , Yang Yang , Xinyi Liu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Industrial land allocation in rural regions (RILA) is crucial for promoting rural economic development and advancing comprehensive rural revitalization. However, existing research lacks a comprehensive understanding of the evolutionary characteristics of RILA, much less its driving mechanisms. Therefore, this study innovatively evaluated and identified RILA on a large scale from the perspectives of scale, quantity, and type, constructing a “four-force” driving mechanism framework for RILA in China based on natural conditions, economic development, infrastructure, and the social environment. Then, we integrated the Random Forest regression model and the Multi-Scale Geographically Weighted Regression model to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanisms of RILA in China. The results indicated that from 2007 to 2022, the mean value of the RILA scale (RS) fluctuated and increased from 150.49 to 272.58 ha, while the quantity of RILA (RQ) gradually rose from 51.21 to 81.02 parcels. Different types of RILA also manifested a yearly growth trend. Spatially, RS gradually shifted from the distribution east of the Hu Huanyong Line to the inland northwest. However, RQ primarily concentrated in the regions east of Hu's Line, particularly in the southeastern coastal regions. Notably, the spatial distribution characteristics varied across RILA types. Changes in the scale, quantity, and types of RILA were influenced by the four directional forces of natural conditions, economic development, infrastructure, and the social environment, respectively. The critical factors influencing RILA were power infrastructure (PI), urbanization (UR), regional land prices (LP), policy support (PS), water resources (WR), elevation (EL), and road density (RD), with PI having the highest explanatory power. PI, PS, and WR had positive impacts on RILA, while UR, LP, and EL exerted negative influences, and RD exhibited an inverted U-shaped trend. The impact of these key drivers on the scale, quantity, and types of RILA displayed significant spatial non-stationarity and certain gradient effects. This study could provide a reference for the sustainable utilization of rural industrial land.

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中国农村工业用地配置的时空格局与驱动机制

农村工业用地配置是促进农村经济发展、推进乡村全面振兴的重要内容。然而，现有的研究对RILA的进化特征缺乏全面的认识，更不用说其驱动机制了。因此，本研究创新性地从规模、数量和类型四个维度对中国农村发展进行了大尺度的评价和识别，构建了基于自然条件、经济发展、基础设施和社会环境的中国农村发展“四力”驱动机制框架。在此基础上，结合随机森林回归模型和多尺度地理加权回归模型，系统地分析了中国城乡城乡发展的时空格局及其驱动机制。结果表明：2007 - 2022年，RILA尺度（RS）均值呈波动趋势，从150.49 ha增加到272.58 ha， RQ数量从51.21 ha逐渐增加到81.02 ha；不同类型的RILA也呈现出逐年增长的趋势。在空间上，RS的分布由胡焕庸线以东逐渐向西北内陆转移。然而，RQ主要集中在胡线以东地区，特别是东南沿海地区。值得注意的是，不同RILA类型的空间分布特征存在差异。乡村乡村发展规模、数量和类型的变化分别受到自然条件、经济发展、基础设施和社会环境四个方向力量的影响。影响RILA的关键因素为电力基础设施（PI）、城市化（UR）、区域土地价格（LP）、政策支持（PS）、水资源（WR）、海拔（EL）和道路密度（RD），其中PI的解释力最强。PI、PS和WR对RILA有正向影响，UR、LP和EL有负向影响，RD呈倒u型趋势。这些关键驱动因素对乡村乡村发展规模、数量和类型的影响表现出显著的空间非平稳性和一定的梯度效应。本研究可为农村工业用地的可持续利用提供参考。

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来源期刊

Habitat International Multiple-

CiteScore

10.50

自引率

10.30%

发文量

151

审稿时长

38 days

期刊介绍： Habitat International is dedicated to the study of urban and rural human settlements: their planning, design, production and management. Its main focus is on urbanisation in its broadest sense in the developing world. However, increasingly the interrelationships and linkages between cities and towns in the developing and developed worlds are becoming apparent and solutions to the problems that result are urgently required. The economic, social, technological and political systems of the world are intertwined and changes in one region almost always affect other regions.