Understanding influenza-like illness dynamics in Jiangsu, China: impacts of COVID-19 control measures and meteorological factors on the population health during 2018-2023.

Abstract

Background: Since the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, how meteorological factors and COVID-19 control measures in China impact the transmission dynamics of influenza-like illness (ILI) across age groups remains unclear.

Objective: This study aims to explore the changes in the seasonal ILI epidemics and the effects of meteorological factors across age groups in Jiangsu, China, before the COVID-19 pandemic and after the relaxation of COVID-19 control measures.

Methods: The time-varying reproduction number (R _t) and doubling time of ILI were deployed to describe the trend and iteration time of the ILI epidemic, and the effect of Chinese government response to COVID-19 on the ILI epidemic, respectively. Considering the stage factors, the role of various meteorological factors in the incidence rate of ILI across age groups from 2018 to 2023 was explored.

Results: The R _t value decreased sharply at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, but dramatically increased at the end of 2022 with the adjusted policy response to COVID-19 in China. The maximum doubling time in Stage II (COVID-19 pandemic period from 23 December 2019 to 26 December 2022) was 57.66 (95% CI: 55.16 to 60.39), while the shortest doubling time of 13.94 (95% CI: 12.91 to 15.13) was observed in Stage III (the period of implementing COVID-19 'opening up' policies from 26 December 2022 to 25 December 2023). By controlling the stage factors, temperature change contributed most to the incidence of ILI in the young group. The number of sunshine hours had a small impact on the incidence of ILI among all age groups.

Conclusions: The relaxation of the COVID-19 prevention and control measures triggers increases in the population mobility, population contact rates and epidemic transmission. Meteorological factors pose various impacts on ILI dynamics. We recommended designing seasonal health interventions and vaccination plans against ILI based on meteorological changes.