Insights on Stochastic Dynamics for Transmission of Monkeypox: Biological and Probabilistic Behavior

IF 1.8 3区数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED

Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI:10.1002/mma.11180

Ghaus ur Rahman, Olena Tymoshenko, Giulia Di Nunno

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The transmission of monkeypox is studied using a stochastic model taking into account the biological aspects, the contact mechanisms and the demographic factors, together with the intrinsic uncertainties. Our results provide insight into the interaction between stochasticity and biological elements in the dynamics of monkeypox transmission. The rigorous mathematical analysis determines threshold parameters for disease persistence. For the proposed model, the existence of a unique global almost sure nonnegative solution is proven. Conditions leading to disease extinction are established. Asymptotic properties of the model are investigated such as the speed of transmission.

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对猴痘传播的随机动力学的见解：生物学和概率行为

采用随机模型研究猴痘的传播，该模型考虑了生物学方面、接触机制和人口因素以及内在的不确定性。我们的结果为猴痘传播动力学中的随机性和生物学因素之间的相互作用提供了见解。严格的数学分析确定了疾病持续性的阈值参数。对于所提出的模型，证明了一个唯一的全局几乎肯定非负解的存在性。建立了导致疾病灭绝的条件。研究了该模型的渐近性质，如传输速度。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences 数学-应用数学

CiteScore

4.90

自引率

6.90%

发文量

798

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences publishes papers dealing with new mathematical methods for the consideration of linear and non-linear, direct and inverse problems for physical relevant processes over time- and space- varying media under certain initial, boundary, transition conditions etc. Papers dealing with biomathematical content, population dynamics and network problems are most welcome. Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences is an interdisciplinary journal: therefore, all manuscripts must be written to be accessible to a broad scientific but mathematically advanced audience. All papers must contain carefully written introduction and conclusion sections, which should include a clear exposition of the underlying scientific problem, a summary of the mathematical results and the tools used in deriving the results. Furthermore, the scientific importance of the manuscript and its conclusions should be made clear. Papers dealing with numerical processes or which contain only the application of well established methods will not be accepted. Because of the broad scope of the journal, authors should minimize the use of technical jargon from their subfield in order to increase the accessibility of their paper and appeal to a wider readership. If technical terms are necessary, authors should define them clearly so that the main ideas are understandable also to readers not working in the same subfield.