Factors affecting U.S. sorghum and cotton exports: A dynamic ARDL simulation approach

Abstract

The U.S. faces increasing competition from Argentina and Brazil for sorghum and cotton exports. Using a dynamic Auto Regressive Distributed Lag model, this study shows that U.S. sorghum and cotton exports are positively affected by area harvested, yield, and export price. The positive causal relationship between yield, export price, and exports are further confirmed by the Kernel Based Least Square results. Therefore, the U.S. must prioritize developing locally adapted high-yielding varieties while maintaining quality to increase competitiveness. Reducing overreliance on a few markets, the U.S. needs to diversify its export markets to strengthen its resilience against external shocks and trade barriers.