S02-03 Understanding (Un)certainty in Next Generation Risk Assessment

Abstract

Next Generation Risk Assessment use New Approach Methodologies (NAMs), which require new ways to integrate diverse evidence and its associated uncertainties. The design of NGRA is therefore an opportunity to consider and develop rigorous practices to characterise and communicate uncertainty to decision makers. For this to be successful, it is advisable to consider recommendations for characterising and communicating (un)certainty in scientific assessment in general. In particular, uncertainty characterisation should evaluate the combined impact of uncertainties on the overall uncertainty in the answer to an assessment question and communicate (un)certainty in a way that is relevant for decision makers. In this talk, I give an overview of methods for characterising uncertainty within an NGRA probabilistic assessment framework and present challenges for tuning uncertainty characterisation for NGRA.