Spatio-temporal analysis of the distribution and co-circulation of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Medellín, Colombia, from 2013 to 2021.

IF 3.4 2区医学 Q1 PARASITOLOGY

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases Pub Date : 2025-09-05 eCollection Date: 2025-09-01 DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0013470

Jorge E Salazar Flórez, Berta N Restrepo, Laís Picinini Freitas, Mabel Carabali, Gloria I Jaramillo Ramírez, Cesar Garcia Balaguera, Brayan S Avila Monsalve, Kate Zinszer

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika present significant public health challenges in Colombia. Spatial studies help clarify the distribution and progression of these diseases over time and location. Objective to describe the spatio-temporal distribution and clustering patterns of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Medellín, Colombia, between 2013 and 2021, with the aim of providing baseline spatial intelligence to support future epidemiological and policy-oriented analyses.

Methods: We analyzed dengue, chikungunya, and Zika cases in Medellín from 2013 to 2021, using weekly data from 27,459 geocoded cases across 265 neighborhoods. Cases were geocoded by neighborhood based on residential addresses in the national surveillance system (SIVIGILA). Spatio-temporal analysis identified high-risk clusters and examined the co-circulation of the diseases through multivariate analysis. We used scan statistics with a discrete Poisson model to detect high-risk clusters.

Results: From 2013 to 2021, 26,350 dengue cases probable and confirmed were reported, with an annual incidence of 137.3 per 100,000 residents. Chikungunya and Zika emerged in 2014 and 2015, with 574 and 515 cases reported, resulting in incidences of 5.1 and 3.8 per 100,000 residents, respectively. We identified five dengue clusters and four clusters each for Zika and chikungunya, mainly in Medellín's northeast. Multivariate analysis revealed six clusters, with four exhibiting high risk for all three diseases. Co-circulation of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika occurred between September 2015 and February 2017. Dengue clusters peaked between 2015 and 2016, while chikungunya and Zika peaks occurred in 2015 and 2016, respectively.

Conclusions: This study advances understanding of spatio-temporal dynamics in arbovirus transmission in Medellín, highlighting high-risk clusters for dengue, chikungunya, and Zika and their collective presence. Our findings support targeted public health interventions to mitigate these diseases.

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2013 - 2021年哥伦比亚Medellín登革热、基孔肯雅热和寨卡病毒分布与共传播的时空分析

背景：登革热、基孔肯雅热和寨卡病毒在哥伦比亚构成了重大的公共卫生挑战。空间研究有助于澄清这些疾病随时间和地点的分布和进展。目的描述2013 - 2021年哥伦比亚Medellín登革热、基孔肯雅热和寨卡病毒的时空分布和聚类模式，为未来流行病学和政策分析提供基线空间情报。方法：我们分析了2013年至2021年Medellín的登革热、基孔肯雅热和寨卡病例，使用了来自265个社区的27,459例地理编码病例的每周数据。病例在国家监测系统（SIVIGILA）中根据居住地址按社区进行地理编码。时空分析通过多变量分析确定了高危集群，并检查了疾病的共循环。我们使用具有离散泊松模型的扫描统计来检测高风险群集。结果：2013 - 2021年，全市共报告登革热疑似和确诊病例26350例，年发病率137.3 / 10万。基孔肯雅热和寨卡病毒分别于2014年和2015年出现，报告病例分别为574例和515例，发病率分别为每10万居民5.1例和3.8例。我们确定了5个登革热聚集群，4个寨卡和基孔肯雅热聚集群，主要在Medellín东北部。多变量分析显示了6个集群，其中4个集群显示出所有三种疾病的高风险。登革热、基孔肯雅热和寨卡病毒在2015年9月至2017年2月期间共同传播。登革热聚集性病例在2015年至2016年达到高峰，而基孔肯雅病和寨卡病分别在2015年和2016年达到高峰。结论：本研究促进了对Medellín虫媒病毒传播时空动态的理解，突出了登革热、基孔肯雅热和寨卡病毒的高危聚集性及其集体存在。我们的研究结果支持有针对性的公共卫生干预措施来减轻这些疾病。

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来源期刊

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases PARASITOLOGY-TROPICAL MEDICINE

自引率

10.50%

发文量

723

期刊介绍： PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases publishes research devoted to the pathology, epidemiology, prevention, treatment and control of the neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), as well as relevant public policy. The NTDs are defined as a group of poverty-promoting chronic infectious diseases, which primarily occur in rural areas and poor urban areas of low-income and middle-income countries. Their impact on child health and development, pregnancy, and worker productivity, as well as their stigmatizing features limit economic stability. All aspects of these diseases are considered, including: Pathogenesis Clinical features Pharmacology and treatment Diagnosis Epidemiology Vector biology Vaccinology and prevention Demographic, ecological and social determinants Public health and policy aspects (including cost-effectiveness analyses).