Mathematical Modelling of Malaria Integrating Temperature, Rainfall, and Vegetation Index

IF 1 4区数学 Q2 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED

Acta Applicandae Mathematicae Pub Date : 2025-09-04 DOI:10.1007/s10440-025-00740-y

Kelly Joëlle Gatore Sinigirira, Wandera Ogana, Faraimunashe Chirove

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Abstract

Environmental factors such as temperature, rainfall, and vegetation index play a crucial role in the transmission dynamics of malaria. Accurately quantifying the complex relationships between these variables and the malaria burden poses a significant challenge. In this study, we developed a host-mosquito mathematical model to investigate the impact of temperature, rainfall, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) on malaria transmission dynamics calibrated with the Burundi case’s study. Mathematical analysis explored the equilibria, stability, and computation of the model’s threshold values. Numerical simulations suggest that temperature, rainfall, and vegetation index affect the transmission dynamics of malaria. Temperature and NDVI appear to exhibit a more pronounced influence among these factors. The conditions conducive to malaria transmission include a mean monthly temperature range of [20-25 °C], an averaged monthly NDVI range of approximately [0.4-0.6]. The reproduction number was used as a quantitative measure to predict the impact of temperature, rainfall, and NDVI on malaria transmission dynamics across Burundi. The results suggest a progressive increase in the reproduction number over time, suggesting a threat of the rising number of cases in Burundi if drastic control measures are not implemented.

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结合温度、降雨和植被指数的疟疾数学模型

温度、降雨和植被指数等环境因素在疟疾传播动态中起着至关重要的作用。准确量化这些变量与疟疾负担之间的复杂关系是一项重大挑战。在这项研究中，我们建立了一个宿主-蚊子数学模型，以研究温度、降雨和标准化植被指数（NDVI）对疟疾传播动态的影响，该模型与布隆迪案例研究进行了校准。数学分析探讨了模型阈值的均衡性、稳定性和计算。数值模拟表明，温度、降雨和植被指数影响疟疾的传播动态。在这些因素中，温度和NDVI的影响更为明显。有利于疟疾传播的条件包括月平均温度范围为[20-25°C]，月平均NDVI范围约为[0.4-0.6]。繁殖数被用作预测温度、降雨和NDVI对布隆迪各地疟疾传播动态的影响的定量措施。结果表明，随着时间的推移，繁殖数量逐渐增加，这表明，如果不采取严厉的控制措施，布隆迪的病例数量将有上升的威胁。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Acta Applicandae Mathematicae 数学-应用数学

CiteScore

2.80

自引率

6.20%

发文量

审稿时长

16.2 months

期刊介绍： Acta Applicandae Mathematicae is devoted to the art and techniques of applying mathematics and the development of new, applicable mathematical methods. Covering a large spectrum from modeling to qualitative analysis and computational methods, Acta Applicandae Mathematicae contains papers on different aspects of the relationship between theory and applications, ranging from descriptive papers on actual applications meeting contemporary mathematical standards to proofs of new and deep theorems in applied mathematics.