Informational differences, adaptive learning, and inflation forecast bias

IF 0.5 4区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS
Qiang Chen, Zechen Yin
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Abstract

This work highlights a previously overlooked factor that contributes to bias in private inflation forecasts—ignorance of confidential monetary rules. Additionally, it examines how this ignorance indirectly affects policy rate settings. The model proposed reconciles biases in two key forecast sources: the inflation expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Federal Reserve's Greenbook forecasts for the output gap. Moreover, the model investigates the impact of informational differences on monetary policy transmission and identifies clear conditions under which inflation rises following a contractionary monetary policy shock.

Abstract Image

信息差异、适应性学习和通货膨胀预测偏差
这项工作强调了一个以前被忽视的因素,它导致了私人通胀预测的偏差——对保密货币规则的无知。此外,它还研究了这种无知如何间接影响政策利率设置。该模型调和了两个关键预测来源的偏差:专业预测者调查(Survey of Professional forecasts)的通胀预期和美联储(fed)的绿皮书(Greenbook)对产出缺口的预测。此外,该模型还研究了信息差异对货币政策传导的影响,并确定了紧缩货币政策冲击后通货膨胀上升的明确条件。
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