Drought Risk Analysis for Panela Sugarcane Production

Abstract

Climate change is a reality, which has implied the presence of more frequent and more intense extreme climatic phenomena. This study analyzed the incidence of drought risk on the panela sugarcane (‘Panela’ stands for raw sugarcane), one of the most promising crops in Colombia. The threat was calculated using the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which measures the incidence of drought. The results showed that in the study area there is a probability of drought occurrence throughout the year. A vulnerability analysis was then carried out, which indicated a high susceptibility of this crop to water shortage. The risk map prepared shows an intermediate category in most of the territory of the study area, a low risk in the extreme north and south, and a high risk in the southeastern area. It is concluded that the crop could obtain better yields in the northern zone, since it is the least affected in the most critical period of the year. It is also recommended that an irrigation system be implemented for the sugarcane crops located in the other zones of the municipality.