Trade shocks and macroeconomic performance in non-UEMOA countries

Abstract

This present study examines how commodity terms of trade (CTOT) influence economic performance in the proposed West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) or non-UEMOA countries using data from 2000 to 2021. To make the assessment, PVAR, Granger causality and impulse-response functions analyses are employed. The analyses are tailored such that economic performance is viewed in terms of unemployment, inflation, and real output. The following main findings are established. CTOT negatively affects inflation though the effect is not very significant. CTOT shocks positively and negatively affect real output and unemployment, respectively. Policy implications are discussed.