Assessing threats and conservation action using population viability analysis for the Critically Endangered Grenada Dove Leptotila wellsi

IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION
Catherine Peters , Anna Muir , Charlotte Hosie , Howard Nelson , Matthew Geary
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Accurate estimation of extinction risk is crucial to preventing further declines of wild populations and identifying appropriate management actions. The Critically Endangered Grenada Dove Leptotila wellsi (approx. 136–182 mature individuals) is at risk from habitat loss, invasive species and disease along with the threat of further population reductions due to hurricane activity. The 2008 Species Recovery Plan for the Grenada Dove recommends establishing a new population, predator control, a captive breeding programme, and management strategies to safeguard this species. This study used original data, along with published long-term population count data, and data from closely related species to conduct a population viability analysis (PVA) for the two extant populations of Grenada Dove to quantify extinction risk and compare the relative impacts of proposed management actions. Probability of extinction of the Grenada Dove in the West population (PE: 100 %) had a mean time to extinction of 19.2 years which was substantially sooner than the probability of extinction in the Southwest (PE: 91.3 %) which has a mean time of extinction of 50 years. Extinction probability was increased under scenarios simulating tourist developments, increased disease transmission and unbalanced sex-ratios. Loss of forest habitat to commercial development is likely to have a big impact on extant Grenada Dove populations and of the potential management approaches, population supplementation is likely be the most effective conservation strategy. This PVA demonstrates the potential to reduce extinction risk for Grenada Dove and highlights the importance of demographic and genetic monitoring which is urgently needed for conserving this Critically Endangered species.
利用种群生存力分析评估极度濒危格林纳达细翅鸽的威胁和保护行动
准确估计灭绝风险对于防止野生种群进一步减少和确定适当的管理行动至关重要。极度濒危的格林纳达鸽子(约为2000只)。136-182只成熟个体)面临栖息地丧失、物种入侵和疾病以及飓风活动造成的人口进一步减少的威胁。2008年格林纳达鸽子物种恢复计划建议建立一个新的种群,控制捕食者,圈养繁殖计划和管理策略来保护这个物种。本研究利用原始数据、已发表的长期种群统计数据以及近缘物种的数据,对格林纳达鸽子现存的两个种群进行了种群生存力分析(PVA),以量化灭绝风险,并比较拟议管理措施的相对影响。格林纳达鸽子在西部种群的灭绝概率(PE: 100%)平均灭绝时间为19.2年,大大快于西南种群的灭绝概率(PE: 91.3%),后者的平均灭绝时间为50年。在模拟旅游开发、疾病传播增加和性别比例不平衡的情景下,灭绝概率增加。商业发展导致森林栖息地的丧失可能对现存的格林纳达鸽子种群产生重大影响,在潜在的管理方法中,种群补充可能是最有效的保护战略。这种PVA证明了减少格林纳达鸽子灭绝风险的潜力,并强调了保护这种极度濒危物种迫切需要的人口和遗传监测的重要性。
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来源期刊
Journal for Nature Conservation
Journal for Nature Conservation 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
3.70
自引率
5.00%
发文量
151
审稿时长
7.9 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal for Nature Conservation addresses concepts, methods and techniques for nature conservation. This international and interdisciplinary journal encourages collaboration between scientists and practitioners, including the integration of biodiversity issues with social and economic concepts. Therefore, conceptual, technical and methodological papers, as well as reviews, research papers, and short communications are welcomed from a wide range of disciplines, including theoretical ecology, landscape ecology, restoration ecology, ecological modelling, and others, provided that there is a clear connection and immediate relevance to nature conservation. Manuscripts without any immediate conservation context, such as inventories, distribution modelling, genetic studies, animal behaviour, plant physiology, will not be considered for this journal; though such data may be useful for conservationists and managers in the future, this is outside of the current scope of the journal.
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