Asymmetric backlash against structural economic change: The electoral consequences of the coal phase-out in Germany

Abstract

Past research has often attributed electoral backlash to structural economic change to a lack of compensation and interest group representation for affected groups. Is that backlash then mitigated in contexts where both of these conditions are fulfilled? I argue that perceived economic deprivation fuelling political disengagement as well as disappointment with the issue-owning party are important factors contributing to such a backlash. Using the case of Germany, I empirically analyse the electoral repercussions of a coal phase-out in the presence of compensation for affected groups as well as active involvement of labour and business interests in political decision-making. By employing a series of staggered difference-in-differences models, I investigate whether the closures of coal plants and mines between 2007 and 2022 affected voting behaviour at the municipal level. I find that these closures resulted in an asymmetric backlash in the form of lower vote shares for the issue owner, the Social Democratic Party and higher abstention rates in affected municipalities. With the significant politicisation around fossil fuel-based energy generation, these findings have important implications for the remaining coal phase-outs worldwide.