Anti-LGBTIQ rhetoric and electoral outcomes under the shadow of war: Evidence from Poland's 2023 parliamentary election

Abstract

The existing literature debates how war can precipitate shifts in electoral coalitions. However, what remains unclear are the underlying cultural contestations affected by war, including how homo- and transphobia have been weaponized politically as a key social division during wartime elections. We examined original survey data collected before the 2023 Polish parliamentary election, which resulted in the defeat of the anti-LGBTIQ Law & Justice Party (PiS). In that election, competing coalitions led by the centre-right-liberal opposition Civic Platform (PO) and the incumbent right-wing-conservative PiS diverged over values like tolerance of LGBTIQ rights, all amid the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Our survey experiment found that informing voters about the PiS's anti-LGBTIQ rhetoric failed to boost either PiS or PO support. However, the same information coupled with Putin's homo- and transphobic justifications for the Russo-Ukrainian war shifted voter support significantly towards the PO. These findings make an important contribution by showing the limitations of anti-LGBTIQ rhetoric as a once ‘tried-and-true’ electoral strategy and offering a strategy to counter the appeal of political homo/transphobia.