Luiz Alexandre Chisini, Luana Carla Salvi, Francine Dos Santos Costa, Rodrigo Varella de Carvalho, Ana Carolina Uchoa Vasconcelos
{"title":"Oral and Oropharyngeal Cancer Mortality in Brazil: Estimates and Projections up to 2042.","authors":"Luiz Alexandre Chisini, Luana Carla Salvi, Francine Dos Santos Costa, Rodrigo Varella de Carvalho, Ana Carolina Uchoa Vasconcelos","doi":"10.1111/cdoe.70014","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>To assess the effect of age-period-birth cohort on mortality rates related to lip/oral and oropharyngeal cancer (LOOPC) in Brazil from 1980 to 2019 and to estimate the future mortality rate for 2042.</p><p><strong>Materials and methods: </strong>Mortality rate per 100 000 inhabitants, and age-standardised mortality rate (ASR) per 100 000 inhabitants were estimated. The Prais-Winsten regression model was used to estimate the trends and the annual percent change (APC%). The age-period-cohort effects were calculated using the Poisson regression model. Lee-Carter model was employed to perform projections.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A total of 134 941 deaths were observed. Prais-Winsten regression model revealed a slight upward trend in lip and oral cancer mortality among men (p = 0.04) and women (p = 0.02), as well as in oropharyngeal cancer among men (p = 0.02). Significant age-period-cohort was observed for LOOPC in both sexes (p < 0.01). The risk ratio declined in recent cohorts for men (Both Cancers) but increased for women (Lip/Oral Cancer). Period analysis showed a risk increase for lip/oral cancer in recent periods in both sexes and a decrease for men and women for oropharyngeal cancer. In 2042, mortality projections decrease in lip/oral cancer for men aged between 40 and 60 years and oropharyngeal cancer in men between 35 and 60 years. For women, no significant changes are projected. The model projections mortality rate reveal varied outcomes across the diverse regions of Brazil.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>A significant age-period cohort was observed over the 40 years assessed. Projections for 2042 indicated a significant decrease in LOOPC mortality rates for men and no change for women.</p>","PeriodicalId":10580,"journal":{"name":"Community dentistry and oral epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1000,"publicationDate":"2025-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Community dentistry and oral epidemiology","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cdoe.70014","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"DENTISTRY, ORAL SURGERY & MEDICINE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Objectives: To assess the effect of age-period-birth cohort on mortality rates related to lip/oral and oropharyngeal cancer (LOOPC) in Brazil from 1980 to 2019 and to estimate the future mortality rate for 2042.
Materials and methods: Mortality rate per 100 000 inhabitants, and age-standardised mortality rate (ASR) per 100 000 inhabitants were estimated. The Prais-Winsten regression model was used to estimate the trends and the annual percent change (APC%). The age-period-cohort effects were calculated using the Poisson regression model. Lee-Carter model was employed to perform projections.
Results: A total of 134 941 deaths were observed. Prais-Winsten regression model revealed a slight upward trend in lip and oral cancer mortality among men (p = 0.04) and women (p = 0.02), as well as in oropharyngeal cancer among men (p = 0.02). Significant age-period-cohort was observed for LOOPC in both sexes (p < 0.01). The risk ratio declined in recent cohorts for men (Both Cancers) but increased for women (Lip/Oral Cancer). Period analysis showed a risk increase for lip/oral cancer in recent periods in both sexes and a decrease for men and women for oropharyngeal cancer. In 2042, mortality projections decrease in lip/oral cancer for men aged between 40 and 60 years and oropharyngeal cancer in men between 35 and 60 years. For women, no significant changes are projected. The model projections mortality rate reveal varied outcomes across the diverse regions of Brazil.
Conclusion: A significant age-period cohort was observed over the 40 years assessed. Projections for 2042 indicated a significant decrease in LOOPC mortality rates for men and no change for women.
期刊介绍：
The aim of Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology is to serve as a forum for scientifically based information in community dentistry, with the intention of continually expanding the knowledge base in the field. The scope is therefore broad, ranging from original studies in epidemiology, behavioral sciences related to dentistry, and health services research through to methodological reports in program planning, implementation and evaluation. Reports dealing with people of all age groups are welcome.
The journal encourages manuscripts which present methodologically detailed scientific research findings from original data collection or analysis of existing databases. Preference is given to new findings. Confirmations of previous findings can be of value, but the journal seeks to avoid needless repetition. It also encourages thoughtful, provocative commentaries on subjects ranging from research methods to public policies. Purely descriptive reports are not encouraged, nor are behavioral science reports with only marginal application to dentistry.
The journal is published bimonthly.
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