Advance selling in the presence of valuation uncertainty and demand correlation

IF 7.2 2区管理学 Q1 MANAGEMENT

Omega-international Journal of Management Science Pub Date : 2025-08-08 DOI:10.1016/j.omega.2025.103407

Jianhong Li , Chen Hu , Mingzhuo Dai , Wenjing Shen , Zhiyuan Chen

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

We consider a problem where a seller presells a product and the demands in the advance and spot periods are stochastic and correlated. There are two types of consumers, informed and uninformed consumers, in the market, depending on their arrival time. Informed consumers who arrive in the advance period are uncertain about their valuation of the product, and the uncertainty will be resolved until the spot period. Considering the correlation between the two types of consumers, by offering a proper advance strategy, the seller can use the advance order information to update his forecast for the spot-period demand and make better inventory decisions accordingly. In this paper, we consider two preorder strategies: the preorder strategy with a price guarantee and the one without a price guarantee. We investigate the seller’s optimal advance and spot pricing decisions under the two strategies and investigate the impact of consumers’ valuation uncertainty on the seller’s decisions. We also conduct numerical experiments to show that the seller should offer a price guarantee when the informed demand uncertainty is large.

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在估值不确定性和需求相关性存在的情况下提前卖出

我们考虑了一个卖家预售产品的问题，其中预售期和现货期的需求是随机且相关的。市场上有两种类型的消费者，知情消费者和不知情消费者，这取决于他们到达的时间。提前到达的知情消费者对产品的估值存在不确定性，这种不确定性直到现货期才会得到解决。考虑到两类消费者之间的相关性，通过提供适当的提前策略，卖家可以利用提前订单信息更新自己对现货需求的预测，从而做出更好的库存决策。本文考虑了两种预订策略：有价格保证的预订策略和没有价格保证的预订策略。我们研究了两种策略下卖方的最优提前定价和现货定价决策，并研究了消费者估值不确定性对卖方决策的影响。我们还通过数值实验证明，当知情需求不确定性较大时，卖方应该提供价格保证。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Omega-international Journal of Management Science 管理科学-运筹学与管理科学

CiteScore

13.80

自引率

11.60%

发文量

130

审稿时长

56 days

期刊介绍： Omega reports on developments in management, including the latest research results and applications. Original contributions and review articles describe the state of the art in specific fields or functions of management, while there are shorter critical assessments of particular management techniques. Other features of the journal are the "Memoranda" section for short communications and "Feedback", a correspondence column. Omega is both stimulating reading and an important source for practising managers, specialists in management services, operational research workers and management scientists, management consultants, academics, students and research personnel throughout the world. The material published is of high quality and relevance, written in a manner which makes it accessible to all of this wide-ranging readership. Preference will be given to papers with implications to the practice of management. Submissions of purely theoretical papers are discouraged. The review of material for publication in the journal reflects this aim.