Presidential elections and secretary appointment: an event study for us biotechnology and drugs

IF 6.9 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-08-07 DOI:10.1016/j.frl.2025.108125

António Miguel Martins , Bruno Albuquerque , Luís Sardinha , Nuno Moutinho

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Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyse the effect of the 2024 US presidential election and the appointment of the US health secretary to the largest US listed biotechnology and drug firms. Using an event study methodology, we find that President Donald Trump’s election had no significant impact on the industry. On the contrary, the results show statistically significant negative stock price reactions around the US health secretary appointment. The negative industry reaction to the US health secretary appointment is largely explained by his scepticism about vaccination and criticism about the high prices of drug prescriptions and margins in the industry. These results highlight the importance of top government position appointments, especially when such appointments eliminate much of the uncertainty regarding future government action in the industry and political uncertainty hypothesis. Finally, cross-section analysis reveals that the firms most penalized by the 2024 US presidential election and the appointment of the US health secretary are those with the highest investments in R&D and capital expenditures. This could mean lower future investments in new vaccines or drugs, seriously harming society.

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总统选举和秘书任命：美国生物技术和药物的事件研究

本研究的目的是分析2024年美国总统大选和美国卫生部长的任命对美国最大的上市生物技术和制药公司的影响。使用事件研究方法，我们发现唐纳德·特朗普总统的当选对该行业没有显著影响。相反，结果显示，从统计上看，围绕美国卫生部长任命，股市出现了显著的负面反应。业界对美国卫生部长任命的负面反应，在很大程度上可以解释为他对疫苗接种的怀疑，以及对药品处方价格高企和该行业利润率高的批评。这些结果突出了政府高层职位任命的重要性，特别是当此类任命消除了有关未来政府在行业中的行动和政治不确定性假设的大部分不确定性时。最后，横断面分析显示，受2024年美国总统大选和美国卫生部长任命影响最大的公司是那些在研发和资本支出方面投资最高的公司。这可能意味着未来对新疫苗或药物的投资减少，严重危害社会。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Finance Research Letters BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

11.10

自引率

14.40%

发文量

863

期刊介绍： Finance Research Letters welcomes submissions across all areas of finance, aiming for rapid publication of significant new findings. The journal particularly encourages papers that provide insight into the replicability of established results, examine the cross-national applicability of previous findings, challenge existing methodologies, or demonstrate methodological contingencies. Papers are invited in the following areas: Actuarial studies Alternative investments Asset Pricing Bankruptcy and liquidation Banks and other Depository Institutions Behavioral and experimental finance Bibliometric and Scientometric studies of finance Capital budgeting and corporate investment Capital markets and accounting Capital structure and payout policy Commodities Contagion, crises and interdependence Corporate governance Credit and fixed income markets and instruments Derivatives Emerging markets Energy Finance and Energy Markets Financial Econometrics Financial History Financial intermediation and money markets Financial markets and marketplaces Financial Mathematics and Econophysics Financial Regulation and Law Forecasting Frontier market studies International Finance Market efficiency, event studies Mergers, acquisitions and the market for corporate control Micro Finance Institutions Microstructure Non-bank Financial Institutions Personal Finance Portfolio choice and investing Real estate finance and investing Risk SME, Family and Entrepreneurial Finance