A machine learning model for predicting short-term outcomes after rapid response system activation

Abstract

Aim

Maintaining rapid response team (RRT) response quality is difficult. A system that supports RRT assessment could potentially contribute to medical safety. Although rapid response system (RRS) triggers have been well-studied, studies on the prediction models of short-term prognosis after RRS activation are scarce. We aimed to develop a model to predict short-term outcomes after RRS activation using machine learning.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study used the In-Hospital Emergency Registry in Japan, a multicentre RRS online registry. We collected data on patient demographics, treatment before RRS, RRT calls, and physiological parameters. The outcome was death within 24 h after RRS calls or unplanned transfers to an intensive care unit. To develop the eXtreme Gradient Boosted Tree Classifier (XGB) and Random Forest (RF) algorithms, a logistic regression (LR) algorithm was used. For model comparison, receiver-operating area under the curve (AUC) was evaluated and compared with those of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS).

Results

5414 cases were included in the study. The outcome occurred in 28.4% of the cases. The XGB model showed the highest AUC (0.798) compared to the RF model (0.796), LR model (0.785), NEWS (0.696), and MEWS (0.660). The most weighted feature in the XGB model was doctor activation, followed by hypotension as the activation criteria and usage of oxygen.

Conclusions

We developed the first machine learning model for short-term prognosis after RRS. This model has the potential to support decision-making by RRT.