The trade-offs of metaverse value creation. Real-Time-Delphi-based scenario analysis by 2040

Abstract

Metaverse, considered one of the decade's most transformative technological innovations, is a highly immersive, computer-generated 3D virtual space where users can interact through their avatars daily. Such an immersive environment may create numerous opportunities for retailers and enable them to advance their omnichannel strategies. However, these opportunities are difficult to determine due to considerable ambiguity and a lack of consensus on metaverse qualities and their social consequences, which may affect the usage intention and adoption. Balancing the metaverse's social, environmental, and economic goals could help determine possible ways to design it. Therefore, this study explores future metaverse scenarios, identifies values present (and missing) in these scenarios, and explores the scope of potential trade-offs in metaverse design. A real-time Delphi-based scenario study (time horizon 2040) was conducted with 15 experts. Based on experts' assessments of 21 projections, four scenarios were developed: the Metawars, the Meta Business Models, the Great Escape, and the Surveillance Metaworld. The scenarios were further qualitatively analyzed to identify their dominating and neglected values. The findings indicate that dominant values come from the market and industrial worlds. In contrast, most neglected in current thinking about the metaverse's future are the domestic, civic, and green values. The four metaverse future scenarios can serve as inputs for technology-in-use concepts and prototypes in the retail and omnichannel domains. The findings also encourage a ‘what if’ reflection on how these scenarios might change if metaverse design considers values that may not be predominant yet.